Fanti, Luciano and Gori, Luca (2010): Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies.
Download (189kB) | Preview
We examine the effects of child policies on both the transitional dynamics and long-run demo-economic outcomes in the conventional overlapping generations model of neoclassical growth extended with endogenous longevity and endogenous fertility. The government invests in public health (Chakraborty, 2004) and the individual survival probability at the end of youth depends on health expenditure through an S-shaped longevity function. This may give rise to four steady states and, hence, development traps are possible. However, poverty or prosperity may not depend on initial conditions, while being the result of a child policy design. In particular, a child tax can be used to effectively allow those economies that were entrapped into poverty to prosper irrespective of where they start from.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies|
|English Title:||Endogenous fertility, endogenous lifetime and economic growth: the role of child policies|
|Keywords:||Child policy; Endogenous fertility; Health; Life expectancy; OLG model|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O4 - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity > O40 - General
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I10 - General
|Depositing User:||Luca Gori|
|Date Deposited:||26. Oct 2010 20:20|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 14:31|
Apps, P., Rees, R., 2004. Fertility, taxation and family policy. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 106, 745–763.
Azariadis, C., Drazen, A., 1990. Threshold externalities in economic development. Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, 501–526.
Barro, R.J., Becker, G.S., 1989. Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica 57, 481–501.
Becker, G.S., 1960. An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and Economic Change in Developing Countries. National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, Ed., Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Becker, G.S., Barro, R.J., 1988. A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 1–25.
Becker, G.S., Murphy, K.M., Tamura, R., 1990. Human capital, fertility and growth. Journal of Political Economy 98, S12–S37.
Bental, B., 1989. The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth. Journal of Population Economics 1, 285–301.
Boldrin, M., Jones, L.E., 2002. Mortality, fertility, and saving in a Malthusian economy. Review of Economic Dynamics 5, 775–814.
Blackburn, K., Cipriani, G.P., 2002. A model of longevity, fertility and growth. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26, 187–204.
Blackburn, K., Issa, H., 2002. Endogenous life expectancy in a simple model of growth. Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research, School of Economic Studies, University of Manchester, Working Paper no. 13, available at http://www.ses.man.ac.uk/cgbcr/discussi.htm.
Bunzel, H., Qiao, X., 2005. Endogenous lifetime and economic growth revisited. Economics Bulletin 15, 1−8.
Chakraborty, S., 2004. Endogenous lifetime and economic growth. Journal of Economic Theory 116, 119–137.
Chen, H.J., 2010. Life expectancy, fertility, and educational investment. Journal of Population Economics 23, 37–56.
Coale, A.J., 1981. Population trends, population policy, and population studies in China. Population and Development Review 7, 85–97.
Diamond, P.A., 1965. National debt in a neoclassical growth model. American Economic Review 55, 1126–1150.
Eckstein, Z., Wolpin, K.I., 1985. Endogenous fertility and optimal population size. Journal of Public Economics 27, 93–106.
Ehrlich, I., 2000. Uncertain lifetime, life protection, and the value of life saving. Journal of Health Economics 19, 341–367.
Fanti, L., Gori, L., 2009. Population and neoclassical economic growth: a new child policy perspective. Economics Letters 104, 27–30.
Galor, O., Weil, D.N., 1996. The gender gap, fertility, and growth. American Economic Review 86, 374–387.
Groezen, B. van, Meijdam, L., 2008. Growing old and staying young: population policy in an ageing closed economy. Journal of Population Economics 21, 573–588.
Groezen, B. van, Leers, T., Meijdam, L., 2003. Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as Siamese twins. Journal of Public Economics 87, 233–251.
Jones, C.I., 2003. Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions. U.C. Berkeley Working Paper, available at http://elsa.berkeley.edu/~chad.
Leung, M.C.M., Wang, Y., 2010. Endogenous health care, life expectancy and economic growth. Pacific Economic Review 15, 11–31.
Livi-Bacci, M., 1997. A Concise History of World Population. Blackwell, Malden, MA.
Momota, M., 2000. The gender gap, fertility, subsidies and growth. Economics Letters 69, 401–405.
Strauss, J., Thomas, D., 1998. Health, nutrition and economic development. Journal of Economic Literature 36, 766–817.
Wigger, B.U., 1999. Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility. Journal of Population Economics 12, 625–640.
Zhang, J., Zhang, J., 1998. Social security, intergenerational transfers, and endogenous growth. Canadian Journal of Economics 31, 1225–1241.
Zhang, J., Zhang, J., Lee, R., 2001. Mortality decline and long-run economic growth. Journal of Public Economics 80, 485–507.