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Cointegration and dynamic linkages of international stock markets: an emerging market perspective

Ahmed, Walid M.A. (2008): Cointegration and dynamic linkages of international stock markets: an emerging market perspective.

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Abstract

This study investigates the long-run relationships and short-run dynamic linkages between the stock exchange of Egypt and its counterparts in Group of Seven (G7) countries, prior to and following the tragic events of September 2001, utilizing Johansen’s cointegration and variance decomposition analyses. The empirical results show, inter alia, that : (i) The Egyptian stock exchange appears to share no pairwise long-run cointegration relationships with its counterparts in the G7 countries across the pre- and post-attack periods, with the UK stock exchange being the only exception in the pre-attack period. (ii) The price variation in the Egyptian stock market over the pre- and post-attack periods is predominantly accounted for by its own innovations. (iii) Lastly, the September 2001 attack and its worldwide repercussions seem to exert no conspicuous impact on the behavior of the Egyptian stock exchange, implying that the latter tends to stand aloof from global events.

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