Kitov, Ivan (2006): The Japanese economy.
Download (140Kb) | Preview
The Japanese economic behavior is modeled. GDP evolution is represented as a sum two components: economic tend and fluctuations. The trend is an inverse function of GDP per capita with a constant numerator. The growth rate fluctuations are numerically equal to two thirds of the relative change in the number of eighteen-year-olds. Inflation is represented by a linear function of labor force change rate. The models provide an accurate description for the poor economic performance and deflation separately. Using the models, GDP per capita is predicted for the next ten years and recommendations are given to overcome deflation.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Japanese economy|
|Keywords:||economic growth; inflation; modeling; Japan|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E37 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E31 - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O11 - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
|Depositing User:||Ivan Kitov|
|Date Deposited:||15. Apr 2007|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 19:41|
The Conference Board & Groningen Growth and Development Centre (2006), Total Economy Database, January 2006, http://www.ggdc.net
Eurostat, (2006), User Queries, http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int/
Hayashi, F. & E. Prescott (2002), The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade, Review of Economic Dynamics, Academic Press for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206.
Hodrick, R. & E. Prescott (1980), Postwar U.S. business cycles: an empirical investigation, Discussion Paper, Northwestern University
Kitov, Ivan (2005a), “GDP growth rate and population”, Research Announcements, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 28 no. 9 p. 1.
Kitov, Ivan (2005b), "Modelling the transition from a socialist to capitalist economic system," Research Announcements, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 28 no. 11 p. 1.
Kitov, Ivan (2006a), " Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in the USA" (submitted to the Economics Bulletin).
Kitov, Ivan (2006b), "Real GDP per capita in developed countries" (submitted to the Economics Bulletin).
Kitov, Ivan (2006c), "Inflation, unemployment, labor force change in European countries " (in preparation).
Kydland, Finn E. & Prescott, Edward C. (1982), "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006), Corporate Data Environment, Labor Market Statistics, DATA, User Queries, January 8, 2006, http://www1.oecd.org/scripts/cde/
The Statistics Bureau, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2006), (http://www.stat.go.jp/english/index.htm)