Castellacci, Fulvio (2006): Innovation, diffusion and catching up in the fifth long wave. Published in: Futures , Vol. 38, No. 7 (2006): pp. 841-863.
Download (161Kb) | Preview
Does the new technological paradigm based on information and communication technologies (ICTs) create new windows of opportunity or further obstacles for catching up countries? The paper discusses this question by taking neo-Schumpeterian long wave theory as the basic framework of analysis. According to this approach, the current rapid diffusion of the ICT-based paradigm marks the initial phase of a fifth long wave period. The first part of the paper focuses on the major changes that characterize the techno-economic system in the fifth long wave, and points out that the new paradigm is leading to several new opportunities for developing economies. If public policies will actively foster the development process by rapidly investing in the new technologies and in the related infrastructures and skills, these new opportunities will indeed be successfully exploited. The second part of the paper shifts the focus to the socio-institutional system, and argues that institutional changes driven by some major actors in the industrialized world are creating a new international regime where the scope and the resources available for State interventions are significantly reduced. The paper concludes by suggesting the existence of a temporary mismatch between the techno-economic and the socio-institutional system, which makes the catching up process more difficult for large parts of the developing world.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Innovation, diffusion and catching up in the fifth long wave|
|Keywords:||Innovation; ICTs; catching up; long waves; global governance|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development
F - International Economics > F5 - International Relations and International Political Economy
|Depositing User:||Fulvio Castellacci|
|Date Deposited:||20. Dec 2010 03:49|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 18:21|
1 B. Dalum, C. Freeman, R. Simonetti, N. Von Tunzelmann, B. Verspagen, Europe and the information and communication technologies revolution, in: J. Fagerberg, P. Guerrieri, B. Verspagen, The Economic Challenge for Europe: Adapting to Innovation-Based Growth, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 1999.
2 C. Freeman, F. Louça, As Time Goes by: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2001.
3 G. Dosi, Technological paradigms and technological trajectories, Research Policy, 11 (1982) 147-162.
4 C. Freeman, J. Clark, L. Soete, Unemployment and Technical Innovation, Pinter, London, 1982.
5 T. Veblen, Imperial Germany and the Industrial Revolution, Macmillan, New York, 1915.
6 C. Perez, Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: new perspectives for developing countries, World Development, 13 (1985) 441-463.
7 L. Pritchett, Divergence, big time, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 11 (1997) 3-17.
8 G. Parayil, The digital divide and increasing returns: contradictions of informational capitalism, The Information Society, 21 (2005) 41-51.
9 A. Gerschenkron, Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, 1962.
10 M. Abramovitz, Catching-up, forging ahead and falling behind, Journal of Economic History, 46 (1986) 385-406.
11 M. Abramovitz, The origins of the postwar catch-up and convergence boom, in: J. Fagerberg, B. Verspagen, N. von Tunzelmann, N. (Eds.), The Dynamics of Technology, Trade and Growth, Edward Elgar, Aldershot, 1994.
12 J. Fagerberg, M. M. Godinho, Innovation and Catching-up, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
13 J. Fagerberg, B. Verspagen, Technology-gaps, innovation-diffusion and transformation: an evolutionary interpretation, Research Policy, 31 (2002), 1291-1304.
14 C. Perez, Structural change and assimilation of new technologies in the economic and social systems, Futures, October 1983, pp. 357-375.
15 J. Schumpeter, Business Cycles, Porcupine Press, Philadelphia, 1939.
16 C. Freeman, Prometheus unbound, Futures, October 1984, pp. 490-500.
17 C. Freeman, Technical change and future trends in the world economy, Futures, 25 (1993) 621-635.
18 J. Dator, Trajectories. Return to long waves, Futures, 31 (1999) 361-372.
19 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting, and the long wave, Futures, 34 (2002) 317-336.
20 P. Dewick, K. Green, M. Miozzo, Technological change, industry structure and the environment, Futures, 36 (2004) 267-293.
21 F. Castellacci, S. Grodal, S. Mendonca, M. Wibe, Advances and challenges in innovation studies, Journal of Economic Issues, XXXIX (2005) 91-121.
22 B. Verspagen, Innovation and Economic Growth, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
23 L. Soete, International diffusion of technology, industrial development and technological leapfrogging, World Development, 13 (1985) 409-422.
24 C. Perez, L. Soete, Catching up in technology: entry barriers and windows of opportunity, in: G. Dosi, et al. (Eds.), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter, London, 1988.
25 F. Castellacci, A neo-Schumpeterian approach to why growth rates differ, Revue Economique, 55 (2004) 1145-1169.
26 B. Verspagen, Structural change and technology: a long view, Revue Economique, 55 (2004) 1099-1125.
27 P. Den Hertog, R. Bilderbeek, S. Maltha, Intangibles. The soft side of innovation, Futures, 29 (1997) 33-45.
28 F. Berkhout, J. Hertin, De-materialising and re-materialising: digital technologies and the environment, Futures, 36 (2004) 903-920.
29 G. Dosi, Sources, procedures, and microeconomic effects of innovation, Journal of Economic Literature, XXVI (1988) 1120-1171.
30 K. Pavitt, Innovation processes, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
31 B. J. L. Berry, Long waves and geography in the 21st century, Futures, 29 (1997) 301-310.
32 A. Grantham, G. Tsekouras, Information society: wireless ICTs’ transformative potential, Futures, 36 (2004) 359-377.
33 J. James, Sustainable Internet access for the rural poor? Elements of an emerging Indian model, Futures, 35 (2003) 461-472.
34 D. Sharma, Technologies for the people: a future in the making, Futures, 36 (2004) 733-744.
35 A. A. Abiodun, 21st century technologies. Opportunities or threats for Africa, Futures, 26 (1994) 944-963.
36 L. Obijiofor, Africa’s dilemma in the transition to the new information and communication technologies, Futures, 30 (1998) 453-462.
37 P. J. Rimmer, China’s infrastructure and economic development in the 21st century, Futures, 29 (1997) 435-465.
38 N. Von Tunzelmann, V. Acha, Innovation in ‘low-tech’ industries, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
39 M. Vivarelli, The Economics of Technology and Employment. Theory and Empirical Evidence, Edward Elgar, London, 1995.
40 M. Pianta, Innovation and employment, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
41 R. Boyer, Formalizing growth regimes, in: G. Dosi et al. (Eds.), Technical Change and Economic Theory, Pinter, London, 1988.
42 R. Boyer, P. Petit, The cumulative growth model revisited, Political Economy. Studies in the Surplus Approach, 4 (1988) 23-44.
43 M. Miozzo, P. Dewick, K. Green, Globalisation and the environment: the long-term effects of technology on the international division of labour and energy demand, Futures, 37 (2005) 521-546.
44 J. James, A. Bhalla, Flexible specialization, new technologies and future industrialization in developing countries, Futures, 25 (1993) 713-732.
45 L. K. Mytelka, Rethinking development. A role for innovation networking in the ‘other two-thirds’, Futures, 25 (1993) 694-712.
46 R. Evangelista, Sectoral patterns of technological change in services, Economics of Innovation and New Technologies, 9 (2000) 183-221.
47 I. Miles, Innovation in services, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
48 J. Cornwall, Modern Capitalism, its Growth and Transformations, Martin Robertson, London, 1977.
49 G. Parayil, Political Economy and Information Capitalism in India, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, UK, in press.
50 J. A. Alic, Knowledge, skill, and education in the new global economy, Futures, 29 (1997) 5-16.
51 I. Miles, Cyberspace as product space. Interactive learning about interactive media, Futures, 29 (1997) 769-789.
52 I. Miles, Services in the new industrial economy, Futures, 25 (1993) 653-672.
53 R. Barras, Towards a theory of innovation in services, Research Policy, 15 (1986) 161-173.
54 F. Gallouj, O. Weinstein, Innovation in services, Research Policy, 26 (1997) 537-556.
55 I. Drejer, Identifying innovation in surveys of services: a Schumpeterian perspective, Research Policy, 33 (2004) 551-562.
56 W. M. Cohen, R. Levin, Empirical studies of innovation and market structure, in: R. Schmalensee, R.D. Willig (Eds.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, Volume II, North Holland, 1989.
57 A. Lam, Organizational Innovation, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
58 F. Gallouj, Beyond technological innovation: trajectories and varieties of services innovation, in: M. Boden, I. Miles, (Eds.), Services and the Knowledge-based Economy, Continuum, London, 2000.
59 M. Castells, The Rise of the Network Society, Blackwell, Oxford, 1986.
60 S. Mariotti, F. Sgobbi, Alternative paths for the growth of e-commerce, Futures, 33 (2001) 109-125.
61 J. A. Katz, S. Safranski, Standardization in the midst of innovation: structural implications of the Internet for SMEs, Futures, 35 (2003) 323-340.
62 E. Fox, US and EU Competition Law: A Comparison, in: E. Graham, D. Richardson, (Eds.), Global Competition Policy, Institute for International Economics, Washington D.C., 1997.
63 D. Archibugi, J. Michie, The globalisation of technology: a new taxonomy, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 19 (1995) 121-140.
64 D. Archibugi, J. Michie, Technological globalisation or national systems of innovation? , Futures, 29 (1997) 121-137.
65 D. Archibugi, S. Iammarino, The policy implications of the globalisation of innovation, Research Policy, 28 (1999) 317-336.
66 OECD, The Knowledge-based Economy: A Set of Facts and Figures, OECD, Paris, 1999.
67 World Bank, World Development Indicators 2000, Query Database, Washington, D.C., 1999.
68 S. Lall, Technological change and industrialization in the Asian newly industrializing economies: achievements and challenges, in: L. Kim, R. Nelson (Eds.), Technology, Learning and Innovation: Experiences of Newly Industrializing Countries, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
69 S. Lall, R. Narula, Foreign direct investment and its role in economic development: do we need a new agenda?, European Journal of Development Research, 16 (2004) 445-462.
70 D. Archibugi, C. Pietrobelli, The globalisation of technology and its implications for developing countries: windows of opportunity or further burden?, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 70 (2003) 861-883.
71 D. Archibugi, A. Coco, The technological performance of Europe in a global setting, Industry and Innovation, 8 (2001) 245-266.
72 R. Narula, A. Zanfei, Globalisation of innovation: the role of multinational enterprises, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
73 National Science Foundation (NSF), Science and Engineering Indicators, US Government Printing Office, Washington D.C., 2002.
74 D. Landes, The Unbound Prometeus. Technological Change and Industrial Development in Western Europe from 1750 to the Present, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, USA, 1969.
75 H. J. Chang, Kicking Away the Ladder – Development Strategy in Historical Perspective, Anthem Press, London, 2002.
76 C. Freeman, Technology Policy and Economic Performance: Lessons from Japan, Pinter, London, 1987.
77 H. Hveem, K. Nordhaug, Public Policy in the Age of Globalization. Responses to Environmental and Economic Crises, Palgrave, 2002.
78 N. Clark, K. Stokes, J. Mugabe, Biotechnology and development: threats and promises for the 21st century, Futures, 34 (2002) 785-806.
79 Hirst, Thompson, Globalization in Question, second ed., Polity Press, Cambridge, 1999.
80 D. Held, A. McGrew, Governing Globalization: Power, Authority and Global Governance, Polity Press, Cambridge, 2002.
81 H. Hveem, Globalisation, governance and development: a political economy perspective, European Journal of Development Research, 14 (2002).
82 N. Woods, Global governance and the role of institutions, in: D. Held, A. McGrew, (Eds.), Governing Globalization: Power; Authority and Global Governance, Polity Press, Cambridge, 2002.
83 J. Fagerberg, Technology and International differences in growth rates, Journal of Economic Literature, 32 (1994) 1147-1175.
84 J. Cantwell, Innovation and Competitiveness, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
85 P. Samuelson, Where Ricardo and Mill rebut and confirm arguments of mainstream economists supporting globalization, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2004) 135-146.
86 F. Castellacci, Technology-gap and cumulative growth: models and outcomes, International Review of Applied Economics, 16 (2002) 333-346.
87 W. Lazonick, The Innovative firm, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
88 M. O’Sullivan, Finance and innovation, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
89 C. Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital. The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2002.
90 J. Stiglitz, Globalization and its Discontents, Penguin Books, 2002.
91 O. Granstrand, Innovation and intellectual property rights, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
92 D. Mowery, B. Sampat, Universities in national innovation systems, in: J. Fagerberg, D. C. Mowery, R. R. Nelson (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Innovation, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005.
93 M. Muchie, Searching for opportunities for Sub-Saharan Africa’s renewal in the era of globalisation, Futures, 32 (2000) 131-147.
94 J. L. Butkiewicz, H. Yanikkaya, The effects of IMF and World Bank lending on long-run economic growth: an empirical analysis, World Development, 33 (2005) 371-391.
95 R. Boyer, The diversity of labor market institutions governing the ‘new economy’: against technological determinism, paper presented at the SASE Conference, Amsterdam, June 2001.
96 D. Landes, The Wealth and Poverty of Nations, Abacus, London, 1998.