Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU

Borraz, Fernando and Gianelli, Diego (2010): Un Análisis de Comportamiento a Nivel de Agente de la Encuesta de Expectativas de Inflación del BCU.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_27713.pdf

Download (197Kb) | Preview

Abstract

Inflation expectations are key unobservable variables for decision-making, especially in managing monetary policy. Understand how to formulate them, if they are rational or adaptive is vital. This study answers these questions through a panel data analysis of the micro data from the inflation expectation survey of the Central Bank of Uruguay. The main findings indicate: i) a low predictive power of the analysts surveyed in the 12-month horizon; ii) a convergence of the individual forecasts to the released monthly median iii) an overweight of the inflation target ceiling and the dynamics of the inflation, and iv) a underweight of monetary policy instruments. With respect to the evidence of rationality, we find the partial use of available information and in some cases, there is a systematic bias.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.