Esposito, Francesco Paolo (2010): Credit risk tools: an overview.

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Abstract
This document presents several Credit Risk tools which have been developed for the Credit Derivatives Risk Management. The models used in this context are suitable for the pricing, sensitivity/scenario analysis and the derivation of risk measures for plain vanilla credit default swaps (CDS), standardized and bespoke collateralized debt obligations (CDO) and, in general, for any credit risk exposed A/L portfolio.\\ In this brief work we compute the market implied probability of default (PD) from market spreads and the theoretical CDS spreads from historical default frequencies. The loss given default (LGD) probability distribution has been constructed for a large pool portfolio of credit obligations exploiting a singlefactor gaussian copula with a direct convolution algorithm computed at several default correlation parameters. Theoretical CDO tranche prices have been calculated. We finally design stochastic cashflow stream model simulations to test fair pricing, compute credit value at risk (CV@R) and to evaluate the one year total future potential exposure (FPE) and derive the value at risk (V@R) for a CDO equity tranche exposure.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Credit risk tools: an overview 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  interest rate swap, spot rate term structure, credit default swap, probability of default, copula function, direct convolution, loss given default, collateralized debt obligation, exposure at default, stochastic cashflow stream model, value at risk, credit value at risk, future potential exposure, Monte Carlo simulation. 
Subjects:  C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0  General C  Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1  Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C15  Statistical Simulation Methods: General G  Financial Economics > G0  General 
Item ID:  28045 
Depositing User:  Francesco Esposito 
Date Deposited:  13. Jan 2011 23:11 
Last Modified:  12. Feb 2013 13:24 
References:  D. Brigo, M. Morini, CDS Market Formulas and Models  Invited presentation at XVIII Warwick Option Conference (2005). Li, David X. (2000). "On Default Correlation: A Copula Function Approach". Journal of Fixed Income 9: 43–54. Zhen Wei, Credit Risk: Modeling and Application, Stanford University Iftikhar U. Hyder, The Barclays Capital Guide to Cash Flow Collateralized Debt Obligations, Barclays Capital 2008. 
URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/28045 