Mark D., Partridge and Dan S., Rickman and M. Rose, Olfert and Kamar, Ali (2010): Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?
Download (550Kb) | Preview
This paper examines whether the significant downward shift in U.S. gross migration rates after 2000 is indicative of the economy nearing a stationary spatial equilibrium. Nearness to spatial equilibrium would imply that site-specific factors such as amenities and location within the urban hierarchy have little influence on migration because their values have been capitalized into prices, causing interregional utility levels to become approximately equal. Yet, in an examination of U.S. counties, we find empirical evidence of only a mild ebbing of natural amenity-based migration after 2000 and little slowing of population redistribution from peripheral towards core urban areas. Instead, the primary finding is a downward shift in the responsiveness of population to spatially asymmetric demand shocks post-2000, and associated increased responsiveness of local area labor supply, more consistent with European regional labor markets. Quantile regression analysis suggests that this shift does not relate to a difference in regional labor market tightness across the two decades.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Dwindling U.S. Internal Migration: Evidence of Spatial Equilibrium?|
|Keywords:||spatial equilibrium; migration; regional growth|
|Subjects:||R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R32 - Other Production and Pricing Analysis
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics
|Depositing User:||Mark D. Partridge|
|Date Deposited:||18. Jan 2011 20:08|
|Last Modified:||11. Feb 2013 22:34|
Bartik, Timothy J., 1991. Who Benefits From State and Local Economic Development Policies? Kalamazoo, MI: Upjohn Institute.
_____, 1993. “Who Benefits from Local Job Growth: Migrants or the Original Residents?” Regional Studies 27(4), 297-311.
Becker, Gary. 1962. “Investment in Human Capital: A Theoretical Analysis.” The Journal of Political Economy 70 (part 2): 9-49.
Blackburn, McKinley L., 2010. “Internal Migration and the Earnings of Married Couples,” Journal of Economic Geography 10, 87-111.
Blanchard O., and Katz L. F.,1992. “Regional Evolutions.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1-75.
Blomquist, Glenn, Mark Berger, and John Hoehn, 1988. “New Estimates of the Quality of Life in Urban Areas,” American Economic Review 78, 89-107.
Bound, John and Harry J. Holzer, 2000. “Demand Shifts, Population Adjustments, and Labor Market Outcomes during the 1990s,” Journal of Labor Economics 18(1), 20-54.
Clark, D.E., W.E. Herrin, T.A. Knapp and N.E. White. 2003. “Migration and Implicit Amenity Markets: Does Incomplete Compensation Matter?” Journal of Economic Geography 3, 289-307.
Combes, Pierre-Philippe and Miren Lafourcade, 2005. “Transport Costs: Measures, Determinants, and Regional Policy Implications for France.” Journal of Economic Geography 5, 319–349.
Cromartie, John B. and John M. Wardwell, 1999. “Migrants Settling Far and Wide in the Rural West,” Rural Development Perspectives 14(2), 2-8.
Dennis, Benjamin N. and Talan B. Iscan, 2007. “Productivity Growth and Agricultural Out-Migration in the United States,” Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 18, 52-74.
Decressin, Jorg. and Antonio Fatás, 1995. “Regional Labor Market Dynamics.” European Economic Review, 39, 1627-1655.
Douglas, Stratford, 1997. “Estimating Relative Quality of Life in the United States Using Cross-Migration Data,” Journal of Regional Science 37(3), 411-36.
Faggian A. and McCann Philip, 2006. “Human Capital and Regional Knowledge Assets: a Simultaneous Equation Model.” Oxford Economic Papers 58(3): 475-500.
_____, 2009. “Human capital, graduate migration and innovation in British Regions.” Cambridge Journal of Economics 33: 317-333.
Fletcher, Michael A., 2010, “Few in U.S. Move for New Jobs, Fueling Fear the Economy Might Get Stuck, Too,” Washington Post, July 30, p. A1.
Frey, William H., 2008. “Economy, Housing Woes Slow Migration, Census Shows,” Brookings Institution Press, December 24, 2008. Accessed at http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/1224_migration_frey.aspx.
Frey, William H., Kao-Lee Liaw, Richard Wright, Michael J., 2005. “White Migration within the United States: Role of Race-Ethnicity,” Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs 207-262.
Glaeser, Edward L., Kolko, Jed, Saiz, Albert, 2001. “Consumer City,” Journal of Economic Geography 1: 27-50.
Glaeser, E.L. and Mathew G. Resseger, 2010. “The Complementarity between Cities and Skill.” Journal of Regional Science, 50: 221-244.
Glaeser, L. Edward, and Jesse M. Shapiro, 2003. ‘Urban Growth in the 1990s: Is City Living Back?,’ Journal of Regional Science 43: 139-65.
Graves, Phillip E., 1979. “A Life Cycle Empirical Analysis of Migration and Climate, by Race,” Journal of Urban Economics 6(2), 135-47.
_____, 1980. “Migration and Climate,” Journal of Regional Science 20(2), 227-37.
Graves, Philip E. and Peter Mueser, 1993. “The Role of Equilibrium and Disequilibrium in Modeling Regional Growth and Decline: A Critical Reassessment” Journal of Regional Science 33, 69-84.
Greenwood, Michael J., Gary L. Hunt, Dan S. Rickman and George I. Treyz, 1991. “Migration, Regional Equilibrium, and the Estimation of Compensating Differentials,” American Economic Review 81, 1382-90.
Jaeger, David A., Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk, David Huffman, and Uwe Sunde, 2010. “Direct Evidence on Risk Attitudes and Migration,” Review of Economics and Statistics 92(3), 684-89.
Jimeno, J.F. and S. Bentolila. 1998. "Regional Unemployment Persistence: Spain 1976-1994." Labour Economics 5, 25-52.
Kambourov, Gueorgui and Iourii Manovskii, 2008. “Rising Occupational and Industry Mobility in the United States: 1968-1997,” International Economic Review 49(1), 41-79.
Kaplan, Greg and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2010. “Interstate Migration has Fallen Less than You Think: Consequences of Hot-Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey,” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Papers, No. 16536, http://www.nber.org/papers/w16536.
Kotkin, Joel, 2009. “There’s No Place Like Home,” Newsweek Oct. 9th.
McGranahan, David A., 1999. “Natural Amenities Drive Rural Population Change,” Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, AER 781.
_____, 2008. “Landscape Influence on Recent Rural Migration in the U.S.,” Landscape and Urban Planning 85 (2008) 228–240.
Mincer, Jacob, 1978. “Family Migration Decisions,” Journal of Political Economy 86, 749–773.
Obstfeld, M. and Peri, G., 1998. ‘Regional Non-Adjustment and Fiscal Policy’, in D. Begg, J. VonHagen, C. Wyplosz, and K.F. Zimmermann (eds.) EMU: Prospects and Challenges for the Euro, Blackwell, London, 207-59.
Oswald, Andrew J. and Stephen Wu, forthcoming. “Well-being across America,” The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Partridge, Mark D., 2010. "The Dueling Models: NEG vs Amenity Migration in Explaining U.S. Engines of Growth," Papers in Regional Science. 89(3), 513-536.
Partridge, Mark D. and Dan S. Rickman, 2006. The Geography of American Poverty: Is There a Need for Place-Based Policies, W.E. Upjohn Institute: Kalamazoo, MI.
_____, 1997. “The Dispersion of US State Unemployment Rates: The Role of Market and Non-market Equilibrium Factors,” Regional Studies 31(6), 593-606.
_____, 1999. "A Note on the Benefits to Current Residents of State Employment Growth: Is There an Industry Mix Effect on Migration," Journal of Regional Science 39 (1), 167-181.
_____, 2006. “An SVAR Model of Fluctuations in U.S. Migration Flows and State Labor Market Dynamics,” Southern Economic Journal 72(4), 958-80.
Partridge, Mark D., Dan S. Rickman and Hui Li, 2009. “Who Wins From Local Economic Development? A Supply Decomposition of U.S. County Employment Growth,” Economic Development Quarterly 23, 13-27.
Partridge, Mark D., Dan S. Rickman, and Kamar Ali. 2008. “Recent Immigration and Economic Outcomes in Rural America.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 90 (5): 1326-1333.
_____, 2009. “Recent Immigration: The Diversity of Economic Outcomes in Metropolitan America.” Cityscape 11 (3): 29-57.
Partridge, Mark D., Dan S. Rickman, Kamar Ali, M. Rose Olfert, 2008. "Lost in Space: Population Growth in the American Hinterlands and Small Cities," Journal of Economic Geography, 8: 727-757.
_____, 2010. “The Spatial Dynamics of Factor Price Differentials: Productivity or Consumer Amenity Driven?” Regional Science and Urban Economics 40(6), 440-452.
Pingle, Jonathan F., 2007. “A note on measuring internal migration in the United States.” Economics Letters. 94. 38-42.
Plane, David A. 1993. “Demographic Influences on Migration.” Regional Studies 27: 375-383.
Plane, David A., Christopher J. Henrie and Marc J. Perry, 2005. “Moving Up and Down the Urban Hierarchy across the Life Course,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 15313-15318.
Roberts, Sam. (2009) “Slump Creates Lack of Mobility for Americans.” New York Times. (April 23, 2009).
Rogerson, Peter A. and Daejong Kim, 2005. “Population Distribution and Redistribution of the Baby-Boom Cohort in the United States: Recent Trends and Implications,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 102(43), 15319-15324.
Saks, Raven and Abigail Wozniak, 2007. “Labor Reallocation over the Business Cycle: New Evidence from Internal Migration,” Discussion Paper 2007-32, Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
Sjaastad, Larry A., 1962. "The Costs and Returns of Human Migration," The Journal of Political Economy 70(5), 80-93.
Tabuchi, T. and N. Kentaro, forthcoming. “Estimating Interregional Utility Differentials.” Journal of Regional Science.
Treyz, George I., Dan S. Rickman, Gary L. Hunt and Michael J. Greenwood, 1993. “The Dynamics of U.S. Internal Migration,” Review of Economics and Statistics 75(2), 209-214.
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2010. “State Annual Personal Income,” Table SA04, accessed July 2, 2010 at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/.