Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Coherent Forecast with Nonlinear Econometric Models

Calzolari, Giorgio and Panattoni, Lorenzo (1988): Coherent Forecast with Nonlinear Econometric Models. Published in: paper presented at The Eighth International Symposium on Forecasting. Universiteit van Amsterdam and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, June 12-15. (12. June 1988): pp. 1-6.

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Abstract

The drawbacks of forecasts obtained with the usual deterministic solution methods in nonlinear systems of stochastic equations have been widely investigated in the literature. Most of the proposed therapies are based on some estimation of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables in the forecast period. This however provides a solution to the problem which does not respect the internal coherency of the model, and in particular does not satisfy nonlinear identities. This paper proposes to estimate the mode of the joint distribution of the endogenous variables as an alternative optimal predictor.

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