Kincal, Gokce and Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Holcomb, James H. and Barraza de Anda, Martha P. (2010): Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market. Published in: Estudios Fronterizos , Vol. 11, No. 2 (15. December 2010): pp. 49-77.
Download (204kB) | Preview
There is comparatively little empirical evidence regarding the impacts of cross border business cycle fluctuations on metropolitan housing markets located near international boundaries. This study examines the impacts of economic conditions in Mexico on sales of existing single-family houses in El Paso, Texas. Anecdotal evidence suggests that these impacts are fairly notable. Annual frequency data from the University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project are used to test this possibility. Results indicate that solid empirical evidence of such a linkage is elusive.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on the El Paso Housing Market|
|Keywords:||Business Cycles, Border Housing Markets|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R15 - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Models
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R3 - Real Estate Markets, Production Analysis, and Firm Location > R31 - Housing Supply and Markets
|Depositing User:||Thomas Fullerton|
|Date Deposited:||27. Feb 2011 23:18|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 13:33|
Adkisson, R.V., and L. Zimmerman, 2004, “Retail Trade on the US-Mexico Border during the NAFTA Implementation Era,” Growth and Change 35, 77-89.
Bonnie, J.B., 1998, “The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 17, 179-197.
Carliner, G., 1973, “Income Elasticity of Housing Demand,” Review of Economics and Statistics 55, 528-532.
Chen, C., 2004, “House Price Taxonomy,” Economy.com Regional Financial Review 15, 20-27.
Copazza, D.R., P.H. Hendershott, C. Mack, and C.J. Mayer, 1992, “Determinants of Real House Price Dynamics,” NBER Working Paper 9262.
Dagenais, M.C., 1992, “Measuring Personal Savings, Consumption, and Disposable Income in Canada,” Canadian Journal of Economics 25, 681-707.
Dua, P., S.M. Miller, and D.J. Smyth, 1999, “Using Leading Indicators to Forecast U.S. Home Sales in a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Framework,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 18, 191-205.
Follain, J.R., Jr., 1974, “A Study of the Demand for Housing by Low Versus High Income Households,” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 14, 769-782.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., 1998, “Cross Border Business Cycle Impacts on Commercial Electricity Demand,” Frontera Norte 10, 53-66.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., 2001, “Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model,” International Regional Science Review 24, 245-260.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., A.L. Molina, Jr., and S. Ibarreche, 2007, “Borderplex Economic Growth: Chicken, Egg, or Scrambled?” International Journal of Business & Economics Perspectives 2, 124-143.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., A.L. Molina, Jr., and M.J. Pisani, 2009, “Peso Acceptance Patterns in El Paso,” Pennsylvania Geographer (Special Issue on Borders & Boundaries) 47, 91-102.
Fullerton, T.M., Jr., and Tinajero, R., 2003, “Borderplex Economic Outlook: 2003-2005,” Business Report SR03-2, El Paso, TX: University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project.
Goetzmann, W.N., 1993, “The Single Family Home in the Investment Portfolio,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 6, 201-222.
Green, R.K., 2002, “Stock Prices and House Prices in California,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 21, 775-783.
Harris, J.C., 1989, “The Effects of Real Rates of Interest on Housing Prices,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 2, 47-60.
Haurin, D.R.; Gill, H.L., 1987, “Effects of Income Variability on the Demand for Owner-Occupied Housing,” Journal of Urban Economics 22, 136-150.
He, L.T., 2002, “The Effects of Real Stock Returns on Sales of New and Existing Homes,” Journal of Housing Research 13, 199-217.
Hendershott, P.H., 1991, “Are Real House Prices Likely to Decline By 47%?” Regional Science and Urban Economics 21, 553-563.
Hendershott, P.H.; Abraham, J.M., 1992, “Patterns and Determinants of Metropolitan House Prices, 1977-1991,” NBER Working Paper 4196.
Hendershott, P.H.; Abraham, J.M., 1996, “Bubbles in Metropolitan Housing Markets,” Journal of Housing Research 7, 191-207.
Holland, A.S., 1991, “The Baby Boom and The Housing Market,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 21, 656-571.
Jud, G.D.; Winkler, D.T., 2002, “The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices,” Journal of Real Estate Research 21, 29-45.
Kennedy, P.E., 1978, “Direct Wealth Effects in Macroeconomic Models: The Saving versus the Definitional Approach,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 10, 94-98.
Klein, M.W.; Rosengren, E., 1994, “The Real Exchange Rate and Foreign Direct Investment in the United States: Relative Wealth versus Relative Wage Effects,” Journal of International Economics 36, 373-389.
Mankiw, N.G.; Weil, D.N., 1989, “The Baby Boom, The Baby Bust and The Housing Market,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 19, 235-258.
Mankiw, N.G.; Zeldes, S.P., 1991, “The Consumption of Stockholders and Nonstockholders,” Journal of Financial Economics 29, 97-112.
McGibany, J.M.; Nourzad, F., 2004, “Do Lower Mortgage Rates Mean Higher Housing Prices?” Applied Economics 36, 305-313.
Poterba, J.M., 2000, “Stock Market Wealth and Consumption,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 14, 99-118.
Reichert, A.K., 1990, “The Impact of Interest Rates, Income, and Employment upon Regional Housing Prices,” Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics 3, 199-217.
Schwab, R.M., 1983, “Real and Nominal Interest Rates and Demand for Housing,” Journal of Urban Economics 13, 181-195.
Smith, L.B.; Rosen, K.T.; Fallis, G., 1988, “Recent Developments in Economic Models of Housing Market,” Journal of Economic Literature 26, 29-64.
Ullah, A.; Zhou, Z., 2003, “Real Estate and Stock Returns a Multivariate VAREC Model,” Property Management 21, 8-23.
Woodward, S.E., 1991, “Economists’ Prejudices: Why the Mankiw-Weil Story is not Credible,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 21, 531-537.