Bianchi, Carlo and Brillet, Jean-Louis and Calzolari, Giorgio (1986): Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments.
Download (1485Kb) | Preview
Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier should be a trade-off criterion which measures the effect of a variation of the instrument associated with a given cost on government budget, trade balance, etc. The trade-off criterion computed from a macroeconomic model is obviously affected by uncertainty to some extent; a criterion which appears to be strongly effective might at the same time be affected by such an high degree of uncertainty as to recommend against its use. The problem of uncertainty due to estimation errors will be investigated in this paper through experiments on the Mini-DMS model of the French economy.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Forecasts and constraints on policy actions: the reliability of alternative instruments|
|Keywords:||Macroeconometric model, French economy, stochastic simulation, multipliers, trade-off criteria, constraints on policy actions, asymptotic standard errors|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C3 - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables > C30 - General
|Depositing User:||Giorgio Calzolari|
|Date Deposited:||09. Mar 2011 20:30|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 04:57|
Amemiya,T. (1983), "Non-Linear Regression Models", in Handbook of Econometrics, Vol.l, ed. by Z.Griliches and M. D.lntriligator. Amsterdam; North-Holland, 333-389.
Bianchi,C., J.L.Brillet et G.Calzolari (1984), "Analyse et Mesure de l'Incertitude en Prevision d'un Modele Econometrique. Application au Modele Mini-DMS", Annales de I'INSEE 54,31-62.
Blanchi, C., J. L. Brillet, and G. Calzolari (1985), "Effectiveness versus Reliability of Policy Actions under Government Budget Constraint: The Case of France". Paris: INSEE, discussion paper presented at The Fifth World Congress of the Econometric Society, M.I.T., Cambridge, MA, August 17-24.
8ianchi,C., G.Calzolari, and P.Corsi (1981), "Estimating Asymptotic Standard Errors and Inconsistencies of Impact Multipliers in Nontinear Econometric Models", Journal of Econometrics 16, 277-294.
8rillet,J.L. (1981), "Mini-DMS: Modele Macroeconomique de Simulation". Paris: INSEE, Archives & Documents No.35.
8rundy,J.M., and D.W.Jorgenson (1971), "Efficient Estimation of Simultaneous Equations by Instrumental Variables", The Review of Economics and Statistics 53, 207-224.
Evans,M. K., and L. R. Klein (1968), The Wharton Econometric Forecasting Model. Philadelphia: Economics Research Unit, University of Pennsylvania.
Fouquet,D., J.M,Charpin, H.Guillaume, P.A.Muet et D.Vallet (1978), "DMS, Modele Dynamique Multisectoriel". Paris: Collections de l'INSEE, Serie C, No.64-65.
McCarthy,M.D. (1972), "Some Notes on the Generation of Pseudo-Structural Errors for Use in Stochastic Simulation Studies", in Econometric Models of Cyclical Behavior, ed. by B.G.Hickman. New York: NBER, Studies in Income and Wealth No.36, 185-191.
Rac,C.R. (1973),Linear Statistical Inference and its Applications. New York: John Wiley.