Martorana, Marco Ferdinando and Mazza, Isidoro (2010): Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration. Published in: working paper - DEMQ - University of Catania (2011)
Download (383kB) | Preview
Dynamic models of learning and adaptation have provided realistic predictions in terms of voting behavior. This study aims at contributing to their scant empirical verification. We develop a learning algorithm based on bounded rationality estimating the pattern of learning process through a two-stage econometric model. The analysis links voting behavior to past choices and economic satisfaction derived from previous period election and state of the economy. This represents a novelty in the literature on voting that assumes given voter preferences. Results show that persistence is positively affected by the combination of income changes and past behavior and by union membership.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Satisfaction and adaptation in voting behavior: an empirical exploration|
|Keywords:||voting; bounded rationality; learning; political accountability|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C23 - Panel Data Models ; Spatio-temporal Models
D - Microeconomics > D7 - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making > D72 - Political Processes: Rent-Seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models ; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models ; Discrete Regressors ; Proportions ; Probabilities
|Depositing User:||Marco Ferdinando Martorana|
|Date Deposited:||08. Mar 2011 00:54|
|Last Modified:||03. Jul 2015 02:46|
Aldrich, J. H. (1993). "Rational Choice and Turnout." American Journal of Political Science 37(1): 246-278.
Aldrich, J. H. (1997). When is it Rational to Vote? Perspectives on Public Choice: A Handbook. D. C. Mueller. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press: 373-390.
Bendor, J. (2001). Aspiration-based Reinforcement Learning in Repeated Interaction Games an Overview. International Game Theory Review. 3: 159-174.
Bendor, J., D. Diermeier, M. Ting (2003). "A Behavioral Model of Turnout." American Political Science Review 97(2): 261-280.
Blais, A. (2000). To Vote or not to Vote?: the merits and limits of rational choice theory. Pittsburgh, Pa, University of Pittsburgh Press.
Blais, A., R. Young, and M. Lapp (2000). The calculus of voting: An empirical test. European Journal of Political Research. 37: 181-201.
Bush, R. R. and F. Mosteller (1955). Stochastic Models of Learning. New York, Wiley.
Chamberlain, G. (1984). Panel Data in S. G. M. Intriligator (Ed.) Handbook of Econometrics, Amsterdam: North-Holland: 1247–1318.
Collins, N. A., S. Kumar,and J. Bendor (2009). The Adaptive Dynamics of Turnout, The Journal of Politics. 71: 457-472.
Conley, J., A. Toossi, et al. (2006). "Memetics and voting: how nature may make us public spirited." International Journal of Game Theory 35(1): 71-90.
Denny, K. and O. Doyle (2009). Does Voting History Matter? Analysing Persistence in Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 53: 17-35.
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York, Harper.
Feddersen, T.J. (2004). “Rational Choice Theory and the Paradox of Not Voting”, Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(1): 99-112.
Feddersen, T.J. and A. Sandroni (2006). “A Theory of Participation in Elections”, American Economic Review, 96(4): 1271-1282. 19
Ferejohn, J. A. and M. P. Fiorina (1974). "The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis." American Political Science Review 68(2): 525-536.
Fowler, J. H. (2006). Habitual Voting and Behavioral Turnout. The Journal of Politics 68: 335-344.
Fudenberg, D. and D. K. Levine (1998). The Theory of Learning in Games. Cambridge, MA, The Mit Press.
Gerber, A. S., D. P. Green, and R. Shashar (2003). "Voting may be habit-forming: Evidence from a randomized field experiment." American Journal of Political Science 47: 540-550.
Geys, B. (2006). "'Rational' Theories of Voter Turnout: A Review." Political Studies Review 4(1).
Green, D. P. and R. Shachar (2000). "Habit Formation and Political Behaviour: Evidence of Consuetude in Voter Turnout " British Journal of Political Science 30(4): 561-573.
Greene, W. H. (2009). Discrete Choice Modelling, T. C. Mills and K. Patterson (Eds.) Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Vol. 2, Applied Econometrics., Palgrave Macmillan.
Heckman, J. J. (1981). The Incidental Parameters Problem and the Problem of Initial Conditions in Estimating a Discrete Time-Discrete Data Stochastic Process. Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Analysis. C. F. M. a. D. McFadden. Cambridge, MIT Press: 179–95.
Kanazawa, S. (1998). "A Possible Solution to the Paradox of Voter Turnout." The Journal of Politics 60(974-995).
Kanazawa, S. (2000). "A New Solution to the Collective Action Problem: The Paradox of Voter Turnout." American Sociological Review 65: 433-442.
Martorana, M.F. (2010), “Material Conditions, Economic Perceptions and Voting Behavior”, mimeo.
Martorana M.F. and Mazza, I. (2010), “A Note on the Paradox of Voter Turnout”, mimeo.
Linzer, D. and J. Honaker (2003). A Theory of the Evolution of Voting: Turnout Dynamics and the Importance of Groups. annual meeting of the American Political Science Association. Philadelphia Marriott Hotel, Philadelphia, PA.
Mueller, D. C. (2003a). Public Choice III. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Mueller, D.C. (2003b). Perspectives in Public Choice: an Handbook. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Mundlak, Y. (1978). "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data." Econometrica 46(1).
Orme, C. D. (2001). The Initial Conditions Problem and Two-Step Estimation in Discrete Panel Date Models. Department of Economics Discussion Paper University of Manchester.
Palfrey, T. R. and H. Rosenthal (1983). "A strategic calculus of voting." Public Choice 41(1): 7-53.
Palfrey, T. R. and H. Rosenthal (1985). "Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty." American Political Science Review 79(1): 62-78. 20
Plutzer, E. (2002). "Becoming a Habitual Voter: Inertia, Resources, and Growth in Young Adulthood." American Political Science Review 96(1): 41-56.
Poi, B. P. (2004). “From the Help Desk: Some Bootstrapping Techniques.” Stata Journal 4(3): 312-328.
Riker, W. H. and P. C. Ordeshook (1968). "A Theory of the Calculus of Voting." American Political Science Review 62(1): 25-42.
Schram, A. and J. Sonnemans (1996a). "Voter turnout as a participation game: an experimental investigation." International Journal of Game Theory 25(3): 385-406.
Schram, A. and J. Sonnemans (1996b). "Why People vote: Experimental evidence." Journal of Economic Psychology 17(4): 417-422.
Selten, R. (1991). "Evolution, learning, and economic behavior." Games and Economic Behavior 3(1): 3-24.
Sieg, G. and C. Schulz (1995). "Evolutionary dynamics in the voting game." Public Choice 85(1): 157-172.
Simon, H. A. (1957). Models of Man: Social and Rational; Mathematical Essays on Rational Human Behavior in a Social Setting. New York, John Wiley and Sons.
Tillman, E. R. (2008). "Economic Judgments, Party Choice and Voter Abstention in Cross-National Perspective." Comparative Political Studies 41(9): 1290-1309.
Uhlaner, C.J. (1989). “Rational Turnout: the Neglected Role of Groups”, American Journal of Political Science 33 (2): 390-422.
Uhrig, N. S. C. (2008). The Nature and the Causes of Attrition in the British Household Panel Survey. ISER working Paper Colchester, ISER.