Munich Personal RePEc Archive

The canonical econophysics approach to the flash crash of May 6, 2010

Mazzeu, Joao and Otuki, Thiago and Da Silva, Sergio (2011): The canonical econophysics approach to the flash crash of May 6, 2010. Published in: Applied Mathematical Sciences , Vol. 28, No. 5 (2011): pp. 1373-1389.

[img]
Preview
PDF
MPRA_paper_29138.pdf

Download (525Kb) | Preview

Abstract

We carry out a statistical physics analysis of the flash crash of May 6, 2010 using data from the Dow Jones Industrial Average index sampled at a one-minute frequency from September 1, 2009 to May 31, 2010. We evaluate the hypothesis of a non-Gaussian Levy-stable distribution to model the data and pay particular attention to the distribution-tail behavior. We conclude that there is non-Gaussian scaling and thus that the flash crash cannot be considered an anomaly. From the study of tails, we find that the flash crash followed a power-law pattern outside the Levy regime, which was not the inverse cubic law. Finally, we show that the time-dependent variance of the DJIA-index returns, not tracked by the Levy, can be modeled in a straightforward manner by a GARCH (1, 1) process.

UB_LMU-Logo
MPRA is a RePEc service hosted by
the Munich University Library in Germany.