Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020

Roland-Holst, David and Tarp, Finn and Dinh, Van An and Thanh, Vo Tri and Huong, Pham Lan and Dinh, Hien Minh (2002): Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020. Published in:

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Abstract

This study presents a set of assessments of the long term economic effects of Vietnam’s accession to the WTO. Generally speaking, our results indicate that Vietnam would benefit from accelerating its participation in more open multilateralism. However, it is also clear from our analysis that these benefits will remain modest in the absence of comprehensive and complementary domestic economic reforms. Passive external liberalization, even when coupled with determined domestic reform, is inferior to WTO participation combined with negotiated market access and other activist multilateral agreements. Finally, our analysis shows that capital insufficiency is a very serious constraint on Vietnamese economic growth and diversification. Capital market reform can play an essential role in dynamic and sustained economic development for the country.

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