Roland-Holst, David and Tarp, Finn and Huong, Pham Lan and Thanh, Vo Tri (2003): Dragon by the Tail, Dragon by the Head, Bilateralism and Globalism in East Asia. Published in:
Download (338kB) | Preview
In this paper, we examine the bilateral implications of regional and global trade arrangements in the East Asian context. Using a dynamic global CGE model, we examine a variety of trade scenarios, in terms of bilateral relations between China and two of its most populace regional partners, Vietnam and Japan. Given the differences between the latter two economies, it might be reasonable to expect divergence in the bilateral outcomes. Our findings indicate that differences in initial conditions can indeed have a significant impact on bilateral adjustments, and that these can be adverse for some partners in the absence of policies that promote trade complementarity. By the latter we mean bilateral import and export patterns where the aggregate grows faster for each country than their total trade, but which help sustain bilateral balance of payments equilibrium.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Dragon by the Tail, Dragon by the Head, Bilateralism and Globalism in East Asia|
|Keywords:||Dragon; Head; Bilateralism; Globalism|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F10 - General
A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics
P - Economic Systems > P4 - Other Economic Systems > P45 - International Trade, Finance, Investment, and Aid
|Depositing User:||Finn Tarp|
|Date Deposited:||28. Mar 2011 10:15|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 15:17|
Anderson, Kym, Joe Francois, Tom Hertel, Bernard Hoekman and Will Martin (2000), “Potential gains from trade reform in the new millennium,” Paper presented at the Third Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis, held at Monash University, 27-30 June.
Armington, Paul (1969), “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 16, pp. 159-178.
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) (1997), The Impact of Trade Liberalization in APEC, Singapore: APEC Secretariat.
Azis, I., L. Liu, and D. Roland-Holst (2002), “Regionalism and Globalism: East Asian Trade Relations in the Wake of China’s WTO Accession,” Research Paper, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, August.
Bergsten, C. Fred (2000), “East Asian Regionalism: Toward a Tripartite World,” The Economist, July 15, pp. 20-22.
Bergsten, C. Fred, and C. Randall Henning (1996), Global Economic Leadership and the Group of Seven, Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics.
Bhagwati, Jagdish and Arvind Panagariya, eds. (1996), The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements, Washington, DC: AEI Press.
Bhagwati, Jagdish, David Greenaway, and Arvind Panagarya (1998), “Trading Preferentially: Theory and Policy,” Economic Journal, 108: 1128-48.
Burniaux, Jean-Marc, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1994), “The RUNS Global Trade Model,” Economic & Financial Modelling, Autumn/Winter, pp. 161-282.
Collado, Juan Carlos, David Roland-Holst and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1995), “Latin America Employment Prospects in a More Liberal Trading Environment,” in Social Tensions, Job Creation and Economic Policy in Latin America, David Turnham, Colm Foy and Guillermo Larrain, editors, OECD, Paris.
de Melo, Jaime and David Tarr (1992), A General Equilibrium Analysis of US Foreign Trade Policy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Deaton, Angus, and John Muellbauer (1980), Economics and Consumer Behaviour, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
Derviş, Kemal, Jaime de Melo and Sherman Robinson (1982), General equilibrium models for development policy, A World Bank Research Publication, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY. 26
Dessus, Sébastien, Kiichiro Fukasaku and Raed Safadi (1999), “Multilateral Tariff Liberalisation and the Developing Countries,” OECD Development Centre Policy Brief, No. 18, Paris.
Drysdale, Peter and David Vines, eds. (1998), Europe, East Asia and APEC: A Shared Global Agenda? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Francois, Joseph and Kenneth Reinert (1997), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis: A Handbook, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Francois, Joseph F. and David Roland-Holst, (1997), "Industry Structure and Conduct in an Applied General Equilibrium Context," in J.F. Francois and K.A. Reinert (eds.), Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997.
Fullerton, Don (1983), “Transition Losses of Partially Mobile Industry-specific Capital,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, February, pp. 107-125.
Hertel, Thomas W., editor (1997), Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and Applications, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY.
Hoekman, B and M. Kostecki (1995), The Political Economy of the World Trading System: From GATT to WTO, New York/Oxford, Oxford University Press.
Kawai, Masahiro, and Shujiro Urata (1996), “Trade Imbalances and Japanese Foreign Direct Investment: Bilateral and Triangular Issues,” in K.H. Jung and J.H. Yoo, eds., Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation: Current Issues and Agenda for the Future, Seoul: Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
Kemp, M.C. and H.Y. Wan (1976) “An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions,” in M.C. Kemp, Three Topics in the Theory of International Trade, Amsterdam: North Holland.
Lee, Hiro and Brian Woodall (1998), “Political Feasibility and Empirical Assessments of a Pacific Free Trade Area,” in H. Lee and D. Roland-Holst, eds., Economic Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin: Trade, Investment, and Environmental Issues, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Lee, Hiro and David Roland-Holst (1995), “Trade Liberalization and Employment Linkages in the Pacific Basin,” The Developing Economies, 33: 155-184.
Lee, Hiro, David Roland-Holst and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1999), “APEC Trade Liberalization and Structural Adjustment: Policy Assumptions,” APEC Discussion Paper Series, APEC Study Center, Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, March.
Lee, Hiro, David Roland-Holst, and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (1999), “Quantitative Analysis of APEC Liberalization Using Calibrated General Equilibrium 27 Modelling,” in M.E. Kreinin, M.G. Plummer, and S. Abe, eds., Asia-Pacific Economic Linkages, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
Lluch, Constantino (1973), “The Extended Linear Expenditure System,” European Economic Review, Vol. 4, pp. 21-32.
Maechler, A.M. and David Roland-Holst (1997), “Labor Market Specification for Empirical General Equilibrium Analysis,” in J.F. Francois and K.A. Reinert (eds.), op. cit.
Martin, Will, and L. Alan Winters, editors (1996), The Uruguay Round and the developing countries, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
McDougall, R., A. Elbehri, and T.P Truong, eds. (1998), Global Trade, Assistance, and Protection: The GTAP 4 Data Base, West Lafayette: Center for Global Trade Analysis, Purdue University.
OECD (1999), “Open Markets Matter: The Benefits of Trade and Investment Liberalization.” Policy Brief, Paris, October 1999.
Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) (1995), Surveys of Impediments to Trade and Investment in the APEC Region, Singapore: PECC for APEC Secretariat.
Panagariya, Arvind (1998), “Should East Asia Go Regional?” in H. Lee and D. Roland- Holst, eds., Economic Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin: Trade, Investment, and Environmental Issues, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Roland-Holst, D. (2002a), “An Overview of China’s Emergence and East Asian Trade Patterns to 2020,” Research Paper, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, July.
Roland-Holst, D. (2002b), “East Asian Patterns of Comparative Advantage,” Research Paper, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, August. Roland-Holst, D., F. Tarp (2002), “Vietnam’s Accession to the World Trade Organization: Economic Projections to 2020,” Discussion Paper DP0204, CIEM, Hanoi.
Rutherford, Thomas F., and David G. Tarr (2002), “Trade liberalization, product variety and growth in a small open economy: a quantitative assessment,” Journal of International Economics, Vol. 56, pp. 247-72.
Tan, Kong Yam (1998), “Regionalism in the Pacific Basin: Strategic Interest of ASEAN in APEC,” in H. Lee and D. Roland-Holst, eds., Economic Development and Cooperation in the Pacific Basin: Trade, Investment, and Environmental Issues, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 28
Tarp, F., D. Roland-Holst, J. Rand, Pham Lan Huong, Vo Tri Thanh, Pham Hoang Ha, and Do Thi Thu Huong (2002), A 1999 Social Accounting Matrix for Vietnam, CIEM, Hanoi, 80 pp. The Gioi Publishers, Hanoi.
Tarp, F., and D. Roland-Holst (2002), “Rural-urban Dualism in Vietnam: Prospects for Redistribution through Economic Reform,” Discussion Paper DP0203, CIEM, Hanoi.
Tarp, F., D. Roland-Holst, J. Rand, and H. T. Jensen (2002), “A Social accounting matrix for Vietnam for the year 2000: Documentation,” processed, CIEM, Hanoi.United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (1999), A Positive Agenda for Developing Countries: Issues for Future Trade Negotiations, Geneva: United Nations.
Urata, Shujiro (1994), “Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth in Asia: Introduction and Major Findings,” The Developing Economies, 32: 363-372.
Urata, Shujiro (1997), “Deepening the Economic Linkages in Trade, Foreign Direct Investment and Labor,” in O.H. Cheong ed., East Asian Economies: Sustaining Growth and Stability, Kuala Lumper: Institute of Strategic and International Studies.
Urata, Shujiro (2000), “Intrafirm Technology Transfer by Japanese Manufacturing Firms in Asia,” in T. Ito and A.O. Krueger, eds., The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development, Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique (1998), “Trade, Employment and Wages: What Impact from 20 More Years of Rapid Asian Growth?” in The Future of Asia in the World Economy, Colm Foy, Francis Harrigan, and David O’Connor, editors, OECD, Paris.
van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique (2001), “LINKAGE Technical Reference Document,” Economic Policy and Prospects Group, The World Bank, Processed, October.
World Bank (2002), Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries: Making Trade Work for the World’s Poor, Washington: The World Bank.
World Bank. (2000). Trade Blocs. Policy Research Report. World Bank/Oxford UP.