Bhattacharya, Kaushik (2010): Independent Candidates in a Parliamentary Election in India: A Poisson Regression Model.
Download (794Kb) | Preview
The paper attempts to explain the number of independent candidates in Indian parliamentary election in the year 2004. The statistical models developed are applications and generalizations of Poisson and Negative Binomial distributions. Our results suggest that the distribution of independent candidates can be explained well with a negative binomial probability model or its generalizations. Our results also help to identify three major factors behind the variations in the number of independent candidates. First, a major determinant of the number of independent candidates is political fractionalization. Results suggest that the number of non-independent candidates would typically lead to more independent candidates in the fray. Interestingly, our analysis points out that the major determinant appears to be political fractionalization at the State level rather than at the constituency itself. Second, we find some indirect evidence of presence of free riders. Free riders typically stand in urban constituencies and against the so called VIP candidates. Third, our results suggest that SC and ST constituencies would have typically lower number of independent candidates due to lack of potential candidates as compared to general constituencies.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Independent Candidates in a Parliamentary Election in India: A Poisson Regression Model|
|English Title:||Independent Candidates in a Parliamentary Election in India: A Poisson Regression Model|
|Keywords:||Independent Candidates, Election, Poisson, Negative Binomial|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions|
|Depositing User:||Kaushik Bhattacharya|
|Date Deposited:||21. Mar 2011 13:59|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 19:40|
Abramson PR, JH Aldrich, P Paolino and DW Rohde, 1995: ‘Third-Party and Independent Candidates in American Politics: Wallace, Anderson, and Perot’, Political Science Quarterly, 110(3), 349 -- 367.
Alvarez RM, J Nagler and S Bowler, 2000: ‘Economics, and the Dynamics of Multiparty Elections: The British 1987 General Election’, American Political Science Review, 94(1), 131 – 149.
Balagopal K, 2004: ‘Andhra Pradesh: Beyond Media Images’, Economic and Political Weekly, June 12.
Cameron AC and PK Trivedi, 1998: Regression Analysis of Count Data, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Canon DT, 1993: ‘Sacrificial Lambs or Strategic Politicians? Political Amateurs in U.S. House Elections’, American Journal of Political Science, 37(4), 1119-41.
Cooil B, 1991: ‘Using Medical Malpractice Data to Predict the Frequency of Claims: A Study of the Poisson Process Models with Random Effects’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 86, 295–295.
Downs A, 1957: An Economic Theory of Democracy, Harper and Row, New York.
Grogger J, 1990: ‘The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: An Analysis of Daily Homicide Counts’, Journal of the American Statistical Associations, 85, 295–403.
Hausman J et al, 1984: ‘Econometric Models of Count Data with an Application to the Patents and R & D Relationship’, Econometrica, 52, 909–938.
Heckelman JC and AJ Yates, 2008: ‘Senate Elections with Independent Candidates’, Journal of Theoretical Politics, 20(1), 31–46.
Lawless JF, 1987: ‘Regression Models for Poisson Process Data’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 82, 808–815.
Lem SB and CM Dowling, 2006: ‘Picking Their Spots: Minor Party Candidates in Gubernatorial Elections’, Political Research Quarterly, 59(3), 471-480.
Miller JM and JA Krosnick, 1998: ‘The Impact of Candidate Name Order on Election Outcomes’, The Public Opinion Quarterly, 62(3), 291-330.
Moores B, 1987: ‘Some Consequences of a Three-Party Split in a UK General Election’, Journal of the Operational Research Society, 38(7), 569-576.
Mullahy J, 1986: ‘Specification and Testing of Some Modified Count Data Models’, Journal of Econometrics, 33, 341–365.
Rosenstone SJ, RL Behr, and EH Lazarus, 1996: Third Parties in America, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Wedel M et al, 1993: ‘A Latent Class Poisson Regression Model for Heterogeneous Count Data’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8, 397–411.