Chiwaula, Levison and Waibel, Hermann (2011): Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment.
Download (186kB) | Preview
Using data from 260 households from the Hadejia-Nguru wetlands, the paper shows that vulnerability to poverty estimates are biased if the data used is seasonal. The seasonal bias in the consumption expenditure is less pronounced than in its variance. The paper further shows that the relative sizes of the seasonal bias in expected consumption expenditure and its variance determines the final magnitude of the bias. However, the bias in the expected consumption expenditure is sufficiently corrected by including seasonal dummy variables. We therefore encourage researchers to consider seasonality when they are modelling consumption expenditure with the aim of estimating vulnerability.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment|
|English Title:||Seasonal bias in household vulnerability to poverty stimates: insights from a natural experiment|
|Keywords:||Seasonal bias; vulnerability to poverty; natural experiment; Nigeria|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C42 - Survey Methods
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
|Depositing User:||Levison/S Chiwaula|
|Date Deposited:||06. May 2011 12:22|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 02:19|
Abe, N., 2008. Volatility in panel data of household expenditure. Discussion paper No.237. Hitotsubashi University Research Unit for Statistical Analysis in Social Sciences. Tokyo, Japan.
Chaudhuri, S. (2003). Assessing vulnerability to poverty: concepts, empirical methods and illustrative examples. Unpublished manuscript.
Chaudhuri, S., J. Jalan and A. Suryahadi (2002). Assessing household vulnerability to poverty from cross-sectional data: a methodology and estimates from Indonesia. Discussion Paper No. 0102-52. Columbia University, 36 pp.
Chaudhuri, S. and C. Paxson, 2002. Smoothing consumption under income seasonality: buffer stocks vs. credit markets. Columbia University Discussion paper Number: 0102-54
Chiwaula, L.S, R. Witt and H. Waibel., 2011 An Asset-Based Approach to Vulnerability: The Case of Small-Scale Fishing Areas in Cameroon and Nigeria. Journal of Development Studies. 47(2): 338 - 353
Christiaensen, L. J. and K. Subbarao, 2005. Towards an understanding of household vulnerability in rural Kenya. Journal of African Economies, 14(4): 520 – 558. Deaton, A., and C. Paxson, 1994. Intertemporal choice and inequality. The Journal of Political Economy, 102(3): 437-467
Deaton, A., 1991. Saving and liquidity constraints. Econometrica, 59(5): 1221- 1248
Günther, I. and J. Maier, 2008. Poverty vulnerability and loss aversion. UNU-WIDER Conference on Frontiers of Poverty Analysis. Helnsinki.
Hall, R.E and F.S Mishkin, 1982. The sensitivity of consumption to transitory income: Estimates from panel data on households. Econometrica, 50(2): 461 – 481
Just, R.E and R.D. Pope, 1979. Production function estimation and related risk considerations. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 61(2): 276-284.
Ligon, E. and Schechter, L., 2003. Measuring Vulnerability. The Economic Journal, 113, pp. C95-C102.
Makoka, D. (2008). Risk, risk management and vulnerability to poverty in rural Malawi. A published PhD Thesis. Cuvillier Verlag, Goettingen, Germany.
Moffitt R.A. and P. Gottschalk, 2002. Trends in the variance of Permanent and Transitory Earnings in the US and their relation to earnings mobility. The Economic Journal, 112(March); C68-C73
Prichett, L., A. Suryahadi and S. Sumarto, 2000. Quantifying vulnerability to poverty. A proposed measure, with application to Indonesia. SMERU Working paper
Suryahadi, A. and S. Sumarto (2003). Poverty and vulnerability in Indonesia before and after the economic crisis. Asian Economic Journal, 17(1), pp. 45-64.