Mamoon, Dawood and Murshed, S. Mansoob (2007): Politics Remains but Economics Leads and Peace Follows: Making a Case for India-Pakistan Peace Process in line with China Model.
Download (288Kb) | Preview
The paper traces the causal links of Indo-Pakistan conflict with trade, military expenditure and democracy under multivariate time series framework from 1950-2005. We find that higher exports to outside world and increased bilateral trade have high propensity to reduce hostilities between both nations. Furthermore, historically high military expenditures in Pakistan have been a direct outcome of continued hostilities in its Eastern borders whereas Indian military expenditure is weakly related with the conflict. Political orientation of both countries does not seem to significantly affect the conflict either. Overall, the findings support the case for liberal (economic) peace than political (democratic) peace.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Institution:||Institute of Social Studies|
|Original Title:||Politics Remains but Economics Leads and Peace Follows: Making a Case for India-Pakistan Peace Process in line with China Model|
|Keywords:||Inter-state conflict and trade; democracy and conflict; conflict and economic development|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration|
|Depositing User:||Dawood Mamoon|
|Date Deposited:||04. May 2007|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 13:29|
Azar, Edward E. (1980) ‘The Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) Project’, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 24 (1): 143-152. Barbieri, Katherine (1996) Economic Interdependence: A Path to Peace or a Source of Intersate Conflict?’, Journal of Peace Research, 33 (1): 29-49. Chang, Yuan-Ching, Solomon W Polachek and John Robst (2004) ‘Conflict and Trade: The Relationship Between Geographic Distance and International Interactions’, Journal of Socio-Economics, 33: 491-509.
Deger, Saadet and Somnath Sen (1990) ‘Military Security and the Economy: Defence Expenditure in India and Pakistan in Keith Hartley and Todd Sandler (eds) The Economics of Defence Spending, London: Routledge: 189-227.
Dorussen, Han (1999) ‘Balance of Power Revisited: A Multi-Country Model of Trade and Conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, 36(4): 443-462.
Economic Survey of India, various issues.
Economic Survey of Pakistan, various issues.
Edgeworth, Francis Y. (1881) Mathematical Psychics, London: C Kegan Paul.
Faten, Ghosn, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer (2004) "The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description." Conflict Management and Peace Science, 21:133-154.
Franceschet, Antonio (2000) ‘Popular Sovereignty or Cosmopolitan Democracy? Liberalism, Kant and international Reform’, European Journal of International Relations, 6(2): 277-302.
Gelpi, Christopher and Joseph Grieco (2003) ‘Economic Interdependence, the Democratic State, and the Liberal Peace’ in Edward Mansfield and Brian Pollins (eds) Economic Interdependence and International Conflict, Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press: 44-59.
Harbom, Lotta and Peter Wallensteen (2005) ‘Armed Conflict and its International Dimensions, 1946-2004’, Journal of Peace Research, 42 (5): 623-635.
Hegre, Håvard (2000) ‘Development and the Liberal Peace: What Does It Take to Be a Trading State’, Journal of Peace Research, 37 (1): 5-30. Henderson, Errol (2002) Democracy and War: The End of an Illusion?, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Hobson, John (1903) Imperialism: A Study, reprinted in 1965 , Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Huntington, Samuel P (1996) The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of the World Order, New York: Simon and Schuster.
International Financial Statistics (2006), International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. Jones, Daniel M., Stuart A Bremer and David J Singer (1996) ‘ Militarised Inter-state Disputes, 1816-1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns’, Conflict Management and Peace Science, 15 (2): 163-212. Kant, Immanuel (1795) Perpetual Peace and Other Essays on Politics, History and Morals, reprinted 1983, Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing. Lenin, Vladimir Illich (1905), Imperialism: The Highest Stage of Capitalism, New York: International Publishers, 1939. Lipset, Seymour (1960) Political Man: The Social Bases of Politics, New York: Doubleday. McClelland, Charles A. (1978) ‘Warnings in the International Events Flow: EFI and Roz as Threat Indicators’, International Interactions, 5 (2-3): 135-204. Milanovic, Branko and Leif Wenar (2007) ‘Are Liberal Peoples Peaceful?’, mimeo. Montesquieu, Charles-Louis de (1748) De l’Espirit des Lois, reprinted, Paris: Flammarion, 1979. Murshed, S Mansoob (2002) ‘Civil War, Conflict and Underdevelopment’, Journal of Peace Research, 39 (4): 387-393.
Murshed, S Mansoob (2006) ‘Turning Swords into Ploughshares and Little Acorns to Tall Trees: The Conflict Growth Nexus and the Poverty of Nations’, Background paper for the United Nations-Department for Economic and Social Affair’s World Economic Survey, 2006, http://www.un.org/esa/policy/wess/.
Oneal, John and Bruce Russet (1999) ‘Assessing the Liberal Peace With Alternative Specifications: Trade Still Reduces Conflict’, Journal of Peace Research, 36 (4): 423-32.
Polachek, Solomon W (1997) ‘Why Democracies Cooperate More and Fight Less: The Relationship Between International trade and Cooperation’, Review of International Economics, 5(3): 295-309.
Polachek, Solomon W and Carlos Seiglie (2006) ‘Trade, Peace and Democracy: An Analysis of Dyadic Dispute’, IZA DO No. 2170.
Polity IV Project (Center for International Development and Conflict Management) www.cidcm.umd.edu/insr/polity.
PRIO data set, http://www.prio.no/cwp/ArmedConflict.
Rawls, John (1999) The Law of Peoples, Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.
Richardson, Lewis Fry (1960), Arms and Insecurity, A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War, Pittsburgh: The Boxwood Press.
Robst, John, Solomon Polachek and Yuan-Ching Chang (2006) ‘Geographic Proximity, Trade and International Conflict/Cooperation’, IZA DP no. 1988. Singer, David J. and Melvin Small (1972), The Wages of War, 1816-1965: A Statistical Handbook, New York: Wiley. Skaperdas, Stergios (1992) 'Cooperation, Conflict and Power in the Absence of Property Rights', American Economic Review, 82: 720-39.
World Development Indicators (2006), World Bank, Washington D.C
Wright, Quincy (1942), A Study of War, Chicago: University Press.