Owyang, Michael T. and Piger, Jeremy and Wall, Howard J. (2010): Discordant city employment cycles.
Download (2125Kb) | Preview
This paper estimates city-level employment cycles for 58 large U.S. cities and documents the substantial cross-city variation in the timing, lengths, and frequencies of their employment contractions. It also shows how the spread of city-level contractions associated with U.S. recessions has tended to follow recession-specific geographic patterns. In addition, cities within the same state or region have tended to have similar employment cycles. We find no evidence, that similarities in employment cycles are related to similarities in industry mix, although cities with more-similar high school attainment and mean establishment size have tended to have more-similar employment cycles.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Discordant city employment cycles|
|Keywords:||City Employment Cycles|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R1 - General Regional Economics > R12 - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity
|Depositing User:||Howard J. Wall|
|Date Deposited:||20. May 2011 12:45|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 02:21|
Abraham, K.G. and L.F. Katz (1986). Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances. Journal of Political Economy 94(3), 507-522.
Caballero, R.J, M.R.A Engel, and J. Haltiwanger (1997). Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence. American Economic Review 87(1), 115-137.
Camacho, M. and G. Perez-Quiros (2006). A New Framework to Analyze Business Cycle Synchronization. In Milas, C., P. Rothman, and D. van Dijk (Eds.), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles. Elsevier.
Carlino, G.A. and R.H. DeFina (1998). The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy. Review of Economics and Statistics 80, 572-587.
Carlino, G.A. and R.H. DeFina (1999). The Differential Regional Effects of Monetary Policy: Evidence from the States. Journal of Regional Science 39(2), 339-358.
Carlino, G.A. and R.H. DeFina (2004). How Strong is Co-Movement in Employment Over the Business Cycle? Evidence from State/Sector Data. Journal of Urban Economics 55, 298-315.
Carlino, G. and K. Sill (2001). Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends and Common Cycles. Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 446-456.
Chang, S.-W. and N.E. Coulson (2001). Sources of Employment Fluctuations in Central Cities and Suburbs. Journal of Urban Economics 49, 199-218.
Chauvet, M. and J.D. Hamilton (2006). Dating Business Cycle Turning Points. In Milas, C., P. Rothman, and D. van Dijk (Eds.), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles. Elsevier.
Clark, T.E. (1998). Employment Fluctuations in U.S. Regions and Industries: The Roles of National, Region-Specific, and Industry-Specific Shocks. Journal of Labor Economics 16, 202-229.
Coulson, N.E. (1993). The Sources of Sectoral Fluctuations in Metropolitan Areas. Journal of Urban Economics 33, 76-94.
Coulson, N.E. (1999). Sectoral Sources of Metropolitan Growth. Regional Science and Urban Economics 29, 723-743.
Coulson, N.E. (2001). Sectoral Sources of the Massachusetts Miracle and Other Turning Points. Journal of Regional Science 41(4), 617-638.
Del Negro, M. (2002). Asymmetric Shocks Among U.S. States. Journal of International Economics 56, 273-297.
Engemann, K.M. and H.J. Wall (2010). The Effects of Recessions Across Demographic Groups.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 92(1), 1-26. Hamilton, J.D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica 57, 357-384.
Hamilton, J.D. and M.T. Owyang (2009). The Propagation of Regional Recessions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2009-013A.
Harding, D. and A. Pagan (2002). Dissecting the Cycle: A Methodological Investigation. Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 365-381.
Harding, D. and A. Pagan (2006). Synchronization of Cycles. Journal of Econometrics 132(1), 59-79.
Harding, D. and A. Pagan (2008). “Business Cycle Measurement.” Durlauf, S.N. and L.E. Blume (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition. Palgrave Macmillan.
Hoynes, H. (2000). The Employment and Earnings of Less Skilled Workers Over the Business Cycle. In D.E. Card and R.M. Blank (Eds.), Finding Jobs: Work and Welfare Reform. New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 23-71.
Kim, C.J. and C. Nelson (1999). State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Kose, M.A, C. Otrok, and C. H. Whiteman (2003). International Business Cycle: World, Region and Country Specific Factors. American Economic Review 93(4), 1216-1239.
Lilien, D.M. (1982). Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment. Journal of Political Economy, 90(4), 777-793.
Owyang, M.T., J. Piger, and H.J. Wall (2005). Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States. Review of Economics and Statistics 87, 604-616.
Owyang, M.T., J. Piger, and H.J. Wall (2008). A State-Level Analysis of the Great Moderation. Regional Science and Urban Economics 38(6), 578-589.
Owyang, M.T., J. Piger, H.J. Wall, and C.H. Wheeler (2008). The Economic Performance of Cities: A Markov-Switching Approach. Journal of Urban Economics 64(3), 538-550.
Owyang, M.T., D. Rapach, and H.J. Wall (2009). States and the Business Cycle. Journal of Urban Economics 65(2), 181-194.
Piger, J. (2009). Econometrics: Models of Regime Changes. In Meyers, R.A (Ed.) Encyclopedia of Complexity and System Science. Springer.
Simon, C.J. (1988). Frictional Unemployment and the Role of Industrial Diversity. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103(4), 715-728.
Voith, R. (1998). Do Suburbs Need Cities? Journal of Regional Science 38(3), 445-464.
Wall, H.J. (2010). The Employment Cycles of Neighboring Cities, Working Paper, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Available Versions of this Item
Discordant city employment cycles. (deposited 06. May 2011 20:37)
- Discordant city employment cycles. (deposited 20. May 2011 12:45) [Currently Displayed]