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Does defence spending impede economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan

Shahbaz, Muhammad and Afza, Talat and Shabbir, Shahbaz Muhammad (2011): Does defence spending impede economic growth? cointegration and causality analysis for Pakistan.

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Abstract

This study revisits the relationship between defence spending and economic growth using Keynesian model in Pakistan by applying ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration for long run and error correction method for short span of time. Empirical evidence suggests a stable cointegration relationship between defence spending and economic growth. An increase in defence spending retards the pace of economic growth confirming the validation of Keynesian hypothesis in the country. Current economic growth is positively linked with economic growth in previous period while rise in nonmilitary expenditures boosts economic growth. Interest rate is inversely associated with economic growth. Finally, unidirectional causality running from military spending to economic growth is found.

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