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Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series

Cellini, Roberto and Cuccia, Tiziana (2011): Are exchange rates really free from seasonality? An exploratory analysis on monthly time series. Unpublished.

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Abstract

This article questions the assumption that exchange rates are non-seasonal and provides selected evidence of monthly time series of exchange rates in which significant seasonal components are present. However, the seasonal component appears to be absent in more recent data. Tentative explanations are suggested.

Item Type:MPRA Paper
Language:English
Keywords:Seasonality; Exchange rates
Subjects:C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Econometric Methods: Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F - International Economics > F3 - International Finance > F31 - Foreign Exchange
ID Code:30888
Deposited By:Roberto Cellini
Deposited On:12. May 2011 14:22
Last Modified:12. May 2011 14:22
References:

Grilli, V., Roubini, N. (1992), Liquidity and exchange rates, Journal of International Economics, 32, 339-52.

Higgison, J. (1975) “An F test for the presence of moving seasonality”, mimeo; downloadable from the US Census Bureau website, www.census.gov.

Jiménez-Martin, J.A., and Flores de Frutos, R. (2009), Seasonal fluctuations and equilibrium models of exchange rate, Applied Economics, 41, 2635-52.

Meese, R., Rogoff, K. (1988), What is real? The exchange rate – interest differential relation over the modern floating rate period, The Journal of Finance, 43, 933-48.

Miron, J.A. (1986), Seasonal fluctuations and the life cycle – permanent income model of consumption, Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1258-79.

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