Munich Personal RePEc Archive

O impacto do crescimento econômico sobre as rodovias de São Paulo: uma análise do modelo de isumo-poduto combinado com geoprocessamento

Ichihara, Silvio Massaru and Guilhoto, Joaquim José Martins (2008): O impacto do crescimento econômico sobre as rodovias de São Paulo: uma análise do modelo de isumo-poduto combinado com geoprocessamento.

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Abstract

The knowledge of the transport infrastructure is essential to define development strategies, especially in countries with continental dimensions like Brazil. Information about the spatial distribution of the economic agents and its commercial transactions allow the creation of specific regional plans. This study attempts to estimate the impact of the economic growth on the highways, using economic data of the Sao Paulo State. Initially, the economic flows among the cities of the State are estimated using an input-output gravity model, considering entropy maximization model and the inter-industry relationships derived from the input-output systems; later, these flows are incorporated in a geographic information system applied to transport network. Thus, the economic value associated to each highway is determined, allowing evaluate the difference between the years of 2002 and 2012, through the analysis of impact using the Leontief inverse matrix. The results are demonstrated by maps, making possible the direct evaluation about demand of transport network, easily understood by other areas technicians.

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