Kurmanalieva, Elvira and Vinokurov, Evgeny (2011): Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade.
Download (608kB) | Preview
The main purpose of this paper is to assess intra-regional trade within the CIS by looking at the impact of numerous trade agreements in the region. Applying a gravity model on a set of 162 countries, we attempt to assess dynamics of intra-regional trade of various trade agreements between 1995 and 2008 in order to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects. We propose and empirically test three explanations of the CIS intra-regional trade: 1) home bias effect, 2) holding together effect and 3) holdup effect. Finally, we perform a simulation of potential trade and see to what extent twelve post-Soviet states and all their groupings would, ceteris paribus, have traded with each other.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Holding together or falling apart:Results of gravity equation of the CIS trade|
|English Title:||Holding Together or Falling Apart:Results of Gravity Equation of the CIS Trade|
|Keywords:||Soviet Union; CIS; EurAsEC; CES; Gravity equation; Trade potential; Panel data|
|Subjects:||F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F15 - Economic Integration
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F13 - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O54 - Latin America; Caribbean
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O52 - Europe
|Depositing User:||Dr. Evgeny Vinokurov|
|Date Deposited:||04. Jul 2011 18:10|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 16:00|
Anderson, J. (1979) A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation, American Economic Review 69, 106-116.
Anderson, J.E. and E. Van Wincoop (2003) Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle. American Economic Review 93(1), 170-192.
Asian Development Bank (2006) Central Asia: Increasing Gains from Trade Through Regional Cooperation in Trade Policy, Transport, and Customs Transit, ADB Report.
Babecka-Kucharcukova, O. and M. Maurel (2004) Russia’s Accession to the WTO: the Potential for Trade Increase, Journal of Comparative Economics 32(4), 680-699.
Baldwin, R. and D. Taglioni (2006) Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations, NBER Working Paper No. 12516, September 2006.
Bergstrand, J. H. (1985) The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence, The Review of Economics and Statistics 67, 474-481.
Brambor, T., and W.R. Clark, and M. Golder (2006) Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses, Political Analysis 14, 63-82.
Carrere, C. (2006) Revisiting the Effects of Regional Trading Agreements on Trade Flows with Proper Specification of the Gravity Model, European Economic Review 50(2), 223-247.
Carrere, C. and C. Grigorou (2008) Landlockedness, Infrastructure and Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Countries, CERDI Working Paper No. 2008.01, January 2008.
Coe, D.T., A. Subramanian, N. Tamirisa T. and R. Bhavnani (2002) The Missing Globalization Puzzle, IMF Working Paper WP/02/171.
De Kort, J. and R. Dragneva (2006) Russia's Role in Fostering the CIS Trade Regime, MPRA Paper No. 21291, March 2010.
De Sousa, J. and O. Lamotte (2007) Disintegration, Transition and Trade, Economics of Transition 15(4), 825-843.
Djankov, S. and C. Freund (2000) Disintegration and Trade Flows: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union, World Bank WPS No. 2378, June 2000.
Egger, P. (2002) An Econometric view on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials. The World Economy 25, 297-312.
Elborgh-Woytek, K (2003) Of Openness and Distance: Trade Developments in the Commonwealth of Independent States, 1993-2002, IMF Working Paper No. 03/207, October 2003.
Evenet, S.J. and W. Keller (2002) On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity Equation, Journal of Political Economy 110, 281-316.
Felipe, J. and U. Kumar (2009) The Role of Trade Facilitation in Central Asia: A Gravity Model, Asian Development Bank, November 2009.
Fidrmuc, J. and J. Fidrmuc (2000) Disintegration and Trade, Review of International Economics 11(5), 811-829.
Frankel, J. A. (1997) Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System, Institute for Internal Economics, Washington, D.C.
Freinkman, L. M., Evgeny Polyakov, and Carolina Revenco (2004) Trade Performance and Regional Integration of the CIS Countries, World Bank Working Paper No. 38.
Friberg, R. and K. Tinn (2009) Landlocked Countries and Holdup, Stockhold School of Economics, mimeo.
Gallup, J.L., J.D. Sachs and A.D. Mellinger (1999) Geography and Economic Development, International Regional Science Review 22, 179-232.
Grafe, C. and M. Raiser and T. Sakatsume (2005) Beyond Borders: Reconsidering Regional Trade in Central Asia, EBRD Working paper No. 95, December 2005.
Grigorou, C. (2007) Landlockedness, Infrastructure and Trade: New Estimates for Central Asian Countries, World Bank WPS 4335, August 2007.
Hausman, A. and E. Taylor (1981) Panel Data and Unobserved Individual Effects, Econometrica 49, 1377-1398.
Havrylyshyn, O. and H. Al-Atrash (1998) Opening Up and Geographic Diversification of Trade in Transition Economies, IMF Working Paper No. 98/22, February 1998.
Helliwell, J.F. (1997) National Borders, Trade and Migration, Pacific Economic Review 2 (3), 165-185.
Khatibi, A (2008) Kazakhstan’s Accession to the WTO: A Quantitive Assessment ECIPE Working Paper No. 02/2008.
Konchyn, V (2006) The Evolution of Ukrainian Economy: New Trade Theory Evidence, MPRA Paper No. 588, November 2007.
Krueger, A. O (1999) Trade Creation and Trade Diversion under NAFTA, NBER Working Paper No. 7429.
Kurmanalieva, E. (2008) Empirical Analysis of Kyrgyz Trade Pattern, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics 2008, 1 (1), 83-97.
Kurmanalieva, E. and Z. Parpiev (2008), Geography and Trade in Central Asia, EERC Research Grant Paper RO6-085.
Libman, A. (2008) Regional Integration in Central Asia: A Firm-Centered View, MPRA Paper No. 10939, October 2008 .
Libman, A. and E. Vinokurov (2010) Holding Together Regionalism and the Interaction of Functional Bureaucracies, MPRA Paper No. 23217, June 2010.
Limao, N. and A.J. Venables (2001) Infrastructure, Geographical Disadvantage and Transport Costs, World Bank Economic Review 15, 451-479.
Lissovolik, B. and Y. Lissovolik (2006) Russia and the WTO: The “Gravity” of Outsider Status, IMF Staff Paper 53(1).
Poyhonen, P. (1963) A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade Between Countries, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 90, 93-99.
Raballand, G. (2003) Determinants of the Negative Impact of Being Landlocked on Trade: an Empirical Investigation Through the Central Asian Case, Comparative Economic Studies 45, 520–536.
Raballand, G., A. Kunth and R. Auty (2005) Central Asia’s Transport Cost Burden and its Impact on Trade, Economic Systems 29, 6–31
Rose, A. K. (2000) One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade, Economic Policy 30, 9-45.
Shelburne, R.C. and O. Pidufala (2006) Evolving Trade Patterns in the CIS: The Role of Manufacturing, UNECE Discussion Paper No. 2006.2, September 2006.
Shepotylo, O. (2009) Gravity with Zeros: Estimating Trade Potential of CIS Countries, Discussion Paper No. 16, Kyiv School of Economics, March 2009.
Stern, R.M. (2002) An Economic Perspective on Russia’s Accession to the WTO, The University of Michigan Discussion Paper No. 480, June 2002.
Tinbergen, J. (1962) Shaping the World Economy: Suggestions for an International Economics Policy, The Twentieth Century Fund, New York.
Vinokurov E. et al. (2010) The System of Indicators of Eurasian Integration. Eurasian Development Bank, Almaty.