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“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR

Carrillo, Paul A. (2010): “Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR. Forthcoming in: Revista Fiscalidad , Vol. 6, (2011)

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Abstract

This paper shows the dynamic relationships which the components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) with direct and indirect taxes. We use a structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) to examine the effect (temporary or permanent) of taxes on domestic production in Ecuador. The calibration of model was done based on research Gachet et al. (2010). This research is one of the first to incorporate restrictions in empirical VARs Ecuador. The main results are: i) the taxes have a temporary effect on the Ecuadorian economy. ii) the increase in indirect taxes have a negative effect on GDP, imports and exports. iii) a positive shock of direct taxes only have a positive effect on exports.

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