Arby, Muhammad Farooq (2008): Some Issues in the National Income Accounts of Pakistan (Rebasing, Quarterly and Provincial Accounts and Growth Accounting).
Download (1MB) | Preview
This dissertation takes on some important issues related with national accounts of Pakistan including (a) re-estimation of past series of national accounts (prior to the year 1999-00) to make it consistent with the new official series for years 1999-00 onward at new base year prices; (b) quarterisation of annual series of national accounts to remove one of the major stumbling block in research by making available high frequency data, (c) estimation of provincial accounts with new base year prices, and (d) estimation the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to economic growth with the new series of gross domestic product and its sub-sectors.
Thus by embarking upon the above mentioned issues, the dissertation contributes to the economic literature in the following respects:
• It provides a new set of national accounts at 1999-00 prices as well as at current prices for a period from 1970-71 to date consistent with the new official estimates for recent years. • It gives quarterly data of GDP and all its sectors/sub-sectors both at constant prices of 1999-00 and at current prices.1 A by-product of this exercise is quarterly GDP deflator (with 1999-00=100) which was earlier not available in Pakistan. • It presents estimates of provincial GDP and all its sectors/sub-sectors covering all the provinces in a consistent framework.2 • It provides series of gross fixed capital formation and capital stock estimated at disaggregated level and at prices of 1999-00. • It estimates contribution of TFP, capital and labour to the growth of GDP and its sectors/sub-sectors (growth rates of new series at 1999-00 prices).
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Some Issues in the National Income Accounts of Pakistan (Rebasing, Quarterly and Provincial Accounts and Growth Accounting)|
|Keywords:||National accounts, quarterly GDP, Provincial GDP, Total factor productivity, Pakistan economy|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs > C80 - General
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E20 - General
|Depositing User:||Muhammad Farooq Arby|
|Date Deposited:||06. Jul 2011 13:51|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 02:44|
Adler, H.J. (1970), Approaches to Regional Economic Accounting in Canada; Review of Income and Wealth, June, 16(2).
Ahmad, M.A. (1980a), Productivity, Prices and Relative Income Shares in Pakistan’s Large-scale Manufacturing Sector, 1958-71; D.Phil Thesis, Oxford University.
Ahmad, M.A. (1980b), Factors Which Hinder or Help Productivity Improvement in Asian Region: Country Paper for Pakistan; Asian Productivity Organization, Tokyo.
Ahmad, N. and H. Jamal (1986), Regional Accounts of Sindh; Research Report No. 52, Applied Economics Research Centre, Karachi.
Amin, Aloysius Ajab (2002), An Examination of the Sources of Economic Growth in Cameroon; AERC Research Paper 116, African Economic Research Consortium, Nairobi, March.
Ando, Albert (2000), On the Japanese Economy and Japanese National Accounts, NBER working Paper No 8033, http://www.nber.org.
Bengaliwala, Kaiser (1995), Temporal and Regional Decomposition of National Accounts of Pakistan; PhD Dissertation, Department of Economics, University of Karachi.
Bengali, Kaiser and Mahpara Sadaqat (2005), Provincial Accounts of Pakistan: Methodology and Estimates 1973-2000; SPDC Working Paper No. 5, Social Policy & Development Centre, Karachi.
Bloem, Adriaan M, Robert J. Dippelsman, and Nils O. Maehle (2001), Quarterly National Accounts Manual – Concepts, Data Sources, and Compilation; International Monetary Fund, May.
Boot, J.C.G., W. Feibes, and J.H.C. Lisman (1967), Further Methods of Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data; Applied Statistics, 16(1), 65-75.
Brown, R. L. (1978), Revised Quarterly State Personal Income 1969-77; Survey of Current Business, Part –I, June, 58(6).
Burney, Nadeem A. (1986), Sources of Pakistan’s Economic Growth; Pakistan Development Review, 25(4) Winter, 573-89.
Capron, H. and F. Thys-Clement (1992), Regional Accounts in Action: Concerning Methodological Problems from a Belgian Perspective, Review of Income and Wealth, 38(1), March.
Central Statistical Office (1968), 25 Years of Pakistan in Statistics 1947-1967; Government of Pakistan, Karachi, Pakistan (Central Statistical Office is now called Federal Bureau of Statistics with head office in Islamabad).
Cheema, Aftab Ahmad (1978), Productivity Trends in the Manufacturing Industries; Pakistan Development Review, Spring.
Chow, Gregory C. and An-loh Lin (1971), Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series; The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53, November, 372-75.
Cowdhary, M.A. (1990), Economic Growth and Regional Disparity in Production Activities in Pakistan; Pakistan Economic and Social Review, winter, 29(2).
Christensen, L. R., Dianne Cummings and Dale W. Jorgenson (1980), Economic Growth, 1947-73: An International Comparison; in New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis, ed. John W. Kendrick and Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chicago University Press.
Collins, S., Barry P. Bosworth (1996), Economic Growth in East Asia: Accumulation versus Assimilation, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 135-203.
Denison, Edward F. (1962), The Sources of Economic Growth in the United States and the Alternatives Before Us; New York, Committee for Economic Development.
Denison, Edward F. (1967), Why Growth Rates Differ: Postwar Experiences in Nine Western Countries, Washington, Brookings.
Denison, Edward F. (1972), Some Major Issues in Productivity Analysis: an Examination of the Estimates by Jorgenson and Griliches; Survey of Current Business, 49(5) Part II, 1-27.
Denison, Edward F., and William K. Chung (1976), How Japan’s Economy Grew So Fast: The Sources of Postwar Expansion, Washington, Brookings.
Denton, Frank T. (1971), Adjustment of Monthly or Quarterly Series to Annual Totals: An Approach Based on Quadratic Minimization; Journal of the American Statistical Association, 66, March, 92-102.
Diewert, W. Erwin (1976), Exact and Superlative Index Numbers; Journal of Econometrics, 4, 115-45.
Diewert, W. Erwin (2000), The Challenge of Total Factor Productivity Measurement; International Productivity Monitor, 1, Fall, 45-52.
Diewert, W. Erwin and Alice O. Nakamura (2002), The Measurement of Aggregate Total Factor Productivity Grwoth; in Heckman, J.J and E.E. Leamer, ed. Handbook of Econometrics, 6, Elsevier Science.
Easterly, William and Ross Levine (2000), It’s not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models; Mimeo. The World Bank, November.
Eisner, Robert (1988), Extended Accounts for National Income and Product, Journal of Economic Literature, 26, December, 1611-94.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1989), Gross National Product of Pakistan, 1980-81 base; Islamabad, Pakistan, March.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1995), National Income Accounts – 1994-95; Islamabad, Pakistan.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1998), 50 Years of Pakistan in Statistics; Islamabad, Pakistan.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2001), In-house Study on Water Supply; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002a), In-house Study on Community, Social, Personal and New Emerging Services; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002b), In-house Study on Construction; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002c), In-house Study on Finance and Insurance; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002d), In-house Study on Fishing; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002e), In-house Study on Livestock; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002f), In-house Study on Slaughtering; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002g), In-house Study on Public Administration & Defence; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2002h), In-house Study on Electricity and Gas; National Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (2004), National Income Accounts of Pakistan: Rebasing from 1980-81 to 1999-00; Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, (various issues); Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1973), Housing, Economic and Demographic Survey 1973 (4 volumes); Islamabad.
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1986), Survey of Rent in District Headquarters of Pakistan 1986; Islamabad
Federal Bureau of Statistics (1988), Survey of Distributive Trade and Services, 1984-85; Islamabad.
Fernandez, Roque B. (1981), A Methodological Note on the Estimation of Time Series; The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 471-76.
Finance Division, Economic Survey (various issues), Economic Advisor’s Wing, Islamabad.
Fukao, Kyoji (2003), Do Foreign Firms Bring Greater Total Factor Productivity to Japan? RIETI Discussion Paper Series 04-E-014, October.
Government of Pakistan (1965), Final Report of the National Income Commission, November, 1965.
Government of Pakistan (1993), Household Energy Strategy Study, 1991-93; GOP, UNDP, World Bank.
Graham Jr., Robert E and J. Thomas Romans (1971), Regional Economic Accounting in the U.S. Office of Business Economics – An Appraisal; Review of Income & Wealth, March, 17(1), 1-34.
Griliches, Zvi (1973), Research Expenditure and Growth Accounting; in B.R. Williams, ed., Science and Technology in Economic Growth, The Price Statistics of Federal Government, MacMillan Press.
Guha-Khasnobis, Basudeb and Faisal Bari (2000), Sources of Growth in South Asian Countries; South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes, India, url: http://www.gdnet.org/pdf/305_Guha-bari1.pdf
Hall, Robert E. (1968), Technical Change and Capital from the Point of View of the Dual; Review of Economic Studies, 35, 34-46.
Hansen, B. (1992), Efficient Estimation and Testing of Co-integration Vectors in the Presence of Deterministic Trends; Journal of Econometrics, 53, 87-121.
Haq, Mazherul (1999), Quarterly Estimates of Real GDP at Constant Prices of 1980-81; unpublished manuscript, Research Department, State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi.
Heal, Geoffrey and Bengt Kristrom (2001), National Income and the Environment, in Karl-Goran and Vincent, The Handbook of Environmental Economics, email@example.com; Bengt.firstname.lastname@example.org.
Hillinger, Claude (2003), Output, Income and Welfare of Nations: Concepts and Measurement; June, University of Munich, Germany, email@example.com.
Hirsch, Werner Z. (1962), Design and Use of Regional Accounts; The American Economic Review, 52(2), Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-Fourth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, May, 365-73.
Hochwald, W. (1957), Conceptual Issues in Regional Income Estimation; Regional Income, NBER Studies in Income and Wealth, 21, Princeton, Princeton University Press.
Hu Zuliu and Mohsin S. Khan (1997) Why is China growing so fast?; Economic Issue, 8, International Monetary Fund, Washington, D.C.
Hulten, Charles R. (1973), Divisia Index Numbers; Econometrica, 41, 1017-25.
Hulten, Charles R. (2000), Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography; National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 7471, January, url:http://www.nber.org/papers/w7471.
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (1970), Review of the Statistical System of Pakistan; 7 volumes, May, FBS, Islamabad.
Isard, W. (1951), Interregional and Regional Input-Output Analysis: A Model of a Space-Economy; Review of Economics and Statistics, 33, 319- 28.
Islam (1991), Productivity in Agriculture: Pakistan Country Study; Asian Productivity Organization, Tokyo.
Jansenn, R.J.A., and S.B. Algera (1988), Methodology of the Dutch System of Quarterly Accounts; National Accounts Occasional Paper Nr. NA-025, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics.
Jaszi, G. (1965), The Quarterly National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1942-62; Review of Income and Wealth, 11.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Zvi Griliches (1967), The Explanation of Productivity Change; Review of Economic Studies, 34, July, 349-83.
Jorgenson, Dale W. and Zvi Griliches (1972), Issues in Growth Accounting: A Reply to Edward F. Denison; Survey of Current Business, 52, 65-94.
Katsis, A., R. Mattson and G. Psacharopoulos (1999), Explaining Educational Development in Pakistan: An Analysis of the 1991 Household Survey; Journal of Educational Planning and Administration, 13 (1).
Khetan, C.P. and R.R. Wagmore (1972), The Quarterly National Income of India, 1951-52 to 1966-67: Some Estimates; Indian Economic Journal, April-June, 19(4-5).
Klenow, P.J. and Rodriguez-Clare, A. (1997), The Neo-classical Revival in Growth Economics: Has it Gone Too Far? in Bernanke, B., Rotemberg, J., ed. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, Massachusetts, MIT Press.
Kemal, A. R. (1976), Consistent Time Series Data Relating to Pakistan’s Large-scale Manufacturing; Pakistan Development Review, Spring.
Kemal, A. R. (1978a), Are “Consistent Time Series Data Relating to Pakistan’s Large-scale Manufacturing” A Reply; Pakistan Development Review, 17(1).
Kemal, A.R. (1978b), An Analysis of Industrial Efficiency in Pakistan: 1959-60 to 1969-70; PhD Dissertation, University of Manchester.
Kemal A. R. (1992a), Report of the Sub-Committee on Sources of Growth in Pakistan, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.
Kemal, A.R. (1992b), Sources of Growth in Pakistan; Report of the Sub-committee, Committee on Economic and Social Well-being for the Eighth Five Year Plan, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, May.
Kemal, A. R., Musleh-ud-Din, Usman Qadir (2002), Global Research Project: Pakistan Country Report; Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, August.
Kemal, A. R. and Arby, M. F. (2004), Quarterisation of Annual GDP of Pakistan; Statistical Papers Series No 5, PIDE, Islamabad.
Kennedy, R.V. (1969), Quarterly Estimates of National Income and Expenditures, 1950-51 to 1957-58; Economic Record, June, 45(10).
Lahr, Michael L. (2000), Reconciling Domestication Techniques, the Notion of Re-exports and Some Comments on Regional Accounting, Economic Systems Research, 13(2).
Libsey, Richard G. and Kenneth Carlaw (2000), What Does Total Factor Productivity Measure?; International Productivity Monitor, 1, Fall, 31-40, url: http://www.sfu.ca/~rlipsey.
Lintott, John (1999), Environmental Accounting and Welfare; Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 1(2) June, 177-93, firstname.lastname@example.org.
Lisman, J.H.C., and J. Sandee (1964), Derivation of Quarterly Figures from Annual Data; Applied Statistics, 13(2), 87–90.
Litterman, Robert B. (1983), A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series; Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1, 169-73.
Maanic International (pvt), Limited (2002), Study on Wholesale & Retail Trade Hotels & Restaurants in Pakistan; National Income Accounts, FBS, Islamabad.
Mahmood, Zafar and Rehana Sidiqui (2000), State of Technology and Productivity in Pakistan’s Manufacturing Industries: Some Strategic Direction to Build Technological Competence; The Pakistan Development Review, 39(1), Spring, 1-21.
Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Economic Wing), Agricultural Statistics of Pakistan (Various issues); Islamabad.
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources (1980), Energy Year Book 1980; Directorate General of Energy Resources, Islamabad.
Mrkaic, Mico (2002), The Growth of Total Factor Productivity in Slovenia; Post-Communist Economies, 14(4).
Nair, K.R.G. (1987), Regional Income Estimation; The Indian Economic Journal, April-June, 34(4).
Norbye, O. D. K. (1978), Are “Consistent Time Series Data Relating to Pakistan’s Large-scale Manufacturing”; Consistent, Pakistan Development Review, 17(1).
Nordhaus, William D. and Edward C. Kokkelenberg (1999), Nature's Numbers: Expanding the National Economic Accounts to Include the Environment; Washington, D.C., National Academy Press.
Nordhaus, William D. and James Tobin (1972), Is Growth Obsolete? Economic Growth, 50th Anniversary Aolloquium V. New York: Columbia University Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research.
OECD (2001), Measuring Productivity: Measurement of Aggregate and Industry Level Productivity Growth; Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Manual.
Orcutt, G.H., H.W. Watts and J.B. Edwards (1968), Data Aggregation and Information Loss; American Economic Review, September, 57 (4).
Phillips, P. C. B. and B. Hansen (1990), Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Process; Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
Population Census Organization (2002), Population and Housing Census Pakistan 1998; Islamabad.
Population Census Organization (1981), Housing Census Report of Pakistan 1980; Islamabad.
Psacharopoulos, G. and H. A. Patrinos (2002), Returns to Investment in Education – A Further Update; The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2881, September.
Quaidian Economic Consultants (2001), Study on Forestry Sector in Pakistan; Federal Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad.
Quaidian Economic Consultants (2002), Study on Small-scale and Household Manufacturing Industries in Pakistan; Federal Bureau of Statistics, Islamabad.
Repetto, Robert, William Magrath, Michael Wells, Christine Beer, and Fabrizio Rossin (1989), Wasting Assets: Natural Resources in The National Income Accounts; Washington: World Resource Institute.
Sabir, Muhammad and Qazi Masood Ahmed (2003), Macroeconomic Reforms and Total Factor Productivity Growth in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis; Social Policy and Development Center, Karachi Research Report No 55.
Sawyer, C. & Miller, R. E. (1983), Experiments in Regionalization of a National Input-Output Table, Environment and Planning, 15, 1501-20.
Senhadji, Abdelhak (1999), Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise; International Monetary Fund Working Paper No WP/99/77, June.
Solow, Robert M., (1957), Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function; Review of Economics and Statistics, 39, August.
Somermeyer, W.H., R. Jansen and A.S. Louter (1976), Estimating Quarterly Values of Annually Known Variables in Quarterly Relationships; Journal of the American Statistical Association, September, 71(355).
Soo, Anna L and Zina Charmokly (2003), The Application of Annual Chain-linking to the Gross National Income System, Economic Trends, 593, April.
State Bank of Pakistan, Banking Statistics of Pakistan, (various issues); Statistics Department, Karachi.
State Bank of Pakistan, Monthly Statistical Bulletin, (various issues); Statistics Department, Karachi.
State Bank of Pakistan, Pakistan’s Balance of Payments, (various issues); Statistics Department, Karachi.
Stevens, B. H. & Lahr, M. L. (1993), Sectoral Aggregation Error in Regional Input- Output Models: A Simulation Study; RSRI Discussion Paper No. 132 (Regional Science Research Institute, Highs town, NJ).
Stone, Richard (1984), Nobel Memorial Lecture 1984: The Accounts of Society; Journal of Applied Econometrics, January, 1(1), 5-28.
Pasha, Hafiz A., Aisha Ghaus-Pasha, and Kalim Hyder (2002), The Slowing Down of the Growth of Total Factor Productivity in Pakistan; Social Policy and Development Center, Karachi Research Report No 44.
Tinbergen, Jan (1942), “Zur Theorie der langfristigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung”, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, Band 55(1).
Tuke, Amanda and David Ruffles (2002), The Effect of Annual Chain-linking on Components of the Expenditure Measure of GDP, Economic Trends, 587, October.
United Nations (1993), System of National Accounts 1993; United Nations Statistics Division, New York.
Vanoli, Andre (2005), A History of National Accounting; IOS Press, The Netherlands.
Wasserman, Gordon (1967), The French Regional Accounting Framework: An Alternative to the Keynesian Approach, Bulletin of the Oxford University Institute of Economics and Statistics, 29(4), November.
Wizarat, Shahida (1981), Technological Change in Pakistan’s Agriculture: 1953-54 to 1978-79; Pakistan Development Review, Winter.
Young, A.H. (1974), Reliability of the Quarterly National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1947-71; Review of Income and Wealth, 20(1), March.
Young, Alwyn (1995), The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience; Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(3), 641-80.
Zaheer, Sajjad (2005), Rebasing of National Income Accounts in Pakistan; SBP Research Bulletin, 1(1), State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi.