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China, India and the future of the global economy

Kwasnicki, Witold (2011): China, India and the future of the global economy. Forthcoming in: Ekonomia, Wroclaw University of Economics

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Abstract

In the first part of the paper an overview of the long-term global economic growth forecasts is presented (e.g., forecasts of Uri Dadush and Bennett Stancil of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a report by HSBC, CitiGroup report, reports of PricewaterhouseCoopers, or Goldman Sachs reports). In this context, the diversified views and opinions on future economic development of China and India (currently considered as the fastest-growing major economies in the world) are presented. In the second part of the article, an extrapolative forecast of global GDP and an estimation of the economies of China and India in global production by 2050 based on the so-called evolutionary model of competition is outlined. The evolutionary model of competition enables to estimate the competitiveness of national economies, therefore in the second part of the paper we presents also the results of estimation of the competitiveness of the economies of India and China after World War II. One aim of that research is to compare the competitiveness of China and India with the leaders of economic development in the twentieth century, namely the United States, Great Britain, Germany, Japan and the European Union. The summary of these considerations are estimations the shares of GDP of China and India in the global product based on global scenarios of the competitiveness changes of these economies over the next 40 years.

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