Martimort, David and Stole, Lars (2011): The Collective Wisdom of Beauty Contests.
Download (257kB) | Preview
This note uses techniques developed for aggregate games to characterize the set of equilib- ria for a beauty contest or prediction game in which the experts’ preferences are quadratic, but with an otherwise unrestricted information structure for private signals and the state variable. We show that, on aggregate, the experts’ collective estimate of the unknown parameter to be estimated is unbiased for every equilibrium.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Collective Wisdom of Beauty Contests|
|Keywords:||Aggregate games, beauty contests, prediction games|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C72 - Noncooperative Games
|Depositing User:||Lars A. Stole|
|Date Deposited:||18. Aug 2011 11:03|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 03:52|
Angeletos, G-M, and A. Pavan, (2007): “Efficient use of information and social value of information,” Econometrica, 75, 1103-42.
Martimort, D. and L. Stole, (2011a): “Aggregate representations of aggregate games with applications to common agency,” Applied Theory Initiative Working Paper #2011-05, June 2011.
Martimort, D. and L. Stole, (2011b): “Public contracting in delegated common- agency games ,” Applied Theory Initiative Working Paper #2011-06, June 2011.
Morris, S., and H. Shin, (2002): “The social value of public information,” Amer- ican Economic Review, 92, 1521-1534.
Myatt, D. and C. Wallace, (2008): “On the sources of value of information: Public announcements and macroeconomic performance,” Nuffield College, Oxford University, Working Paper, 27 October 2008.
Prendergast, C. and L. Stole, (1996): “Impetuous youngsters and jaded old timers: acquiring a reputation for learning,” Journal of Political Economy, 104, 1105- 1134.