Loening, Josef L. (2011): Lao People’s Democratic Republic: responding to rice price inflation. Published in: World Bank Economic Sector Work , Vol. Report, (11. August 2011)
Download (1862Kb) | Preview
The objective of this study is to identify likely factors driving the 2010 rice price hike and suggest options to manage rice price volatility in the future. Regional trade is likely the main proximate cause for high glutinous rice prices. Trade with Vietnam was likely the main reason for short-term price fluctuations, while trade with Thailand affects medium- and long-term price trends. By contrast, traditional supply and demand factors explain only a small part of rice price inflation. There is, however a possibility that major supply shocks may be regional, which could affect Laos, Thailand, and Vietnam simultaneously. The effectiveness of government policy measures has been mixed. There is a need to closely coordinate rice production and trade policies in order to effectively manage price volatility. Future analysis should look at regional glutinous rice production trends and related trade flows.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Lao People’s Democratic Republic: responding to rice price inflation|
|Keywords:||Food prices; rice prices; sticky rice; regional trade; economic policy; Lao PDR; Thailand; Vietnam|
|Subjects:||O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1 - Economic Development > O18 - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5 - Economywide Country Studies > O53 - Asia including Middle East
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
|Depositing User:||Josef Loening|
|Date Deposited:||16. Sep 2011 10:14|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 07:10|
Abdulai, A. 2000. “Spatial Price Transmission and Asymmetry in the Ghanaian Maize Market.” Journal of Development Economics 63: 327-349.
ADB. 2006. Lao PDR: An Evaluation Synthesis on Rice. Operations Evaluation Department. Manila: Asian Development Bank.
Alvesson, H., N. Kiso and J. Rigolini. 2008. Implications of Higher International Food Prices in Lao PDR. Washington DC: World Bank. Processed draft.
Andersson, M. A. Engvall, and A, Kokko, 2007. “Regional Development in Lao PDR: Growth Patterns and Market Integration.” Stockholm School of Economics Working Paper 234.
Baffes, J. “More on the Energy/Non-Energy Price Link.” Applied Economics Letters 17(16): 1555–58.
Baulch, B., H. Hansen, L.D. Trung, and T.N. Minh Tam. 2008. “The Spatial Integration of Paddy Markets in Vietnam.” Journal of Agricultural Economics 59: 271-295.
Boswijk P. and R. van der Weide. 2011. “Methods of Moments Estimation of GO-GARCH Models.” Journal of Econometrics, forthcoming.
Bourdet, Y. 2000. “Emerging Rice Market in Laos?” Country Economic Report. Swedish International Development Agency: Stockholm. Processed.
Brahmbhatt, M. and L. Christiaensen. 2008. Rising Food Prices in East Asia: Challenges and Policy Options. Washington DC: World Bank. Processed.
Chapoto, A. and T.S. Jayne. 2010. “Maize Price Instability in Eastern and Southern Africa: The Impact of Trade Barriers and Market Interventions. Prepared for the COMESA policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, Maputo, Mozambique, 25-26 January 2010 under the African Agricultural Markets Program. Ann Arbor: Michigan State University.
Davis C. and B. Baulch. 2011. Analyzing the Distributional Effects of Food Price Changes. Presentation, March 2011. Vientiane: Prosperity Initiative. Processed.
Deaton, A. 1997. The Analysis of Household Surveys: A Microeconometric Approach to Development. Washington DC: World Bank and John Hopkins University Press.
EMC. 2011. Lao PDR Rice Sector Scoping and Design Study of Lao PDR SME Development in Selected Agriculture Sub-sectors and Value Chains. Presentation, January 2011. Vientiane: Emerging Market Consultants. Processed.
Enders, W. and P.L. Siklos. 2001. “Co-integration and threshold adjustment.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19: 166–176.
FAO. 2011. Global food price monitor (March 2011). Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
FAO/WFP. 2011. Special Report: Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission to Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and World Food Program. Processed.
Fenton, N. and M. Lindelow. 2010. Lao PDR Development Report 2010: Natural Resource Management for Sustainable Development. Vientiane: World Bank. Processed.
Frankel, J. 2006. “The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices.” NBER Working Paper 12713. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
GSD. 2005. Integrated Value Chain Analysis of Selected Strategic Sectors in Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Consultant report prepared for the World Bank. Vientiane: Global Development Solutions. Processed.
Hill, R.V. and L. Christiaensen. 2006. Linking Laotian Farmers to Markets. Washington DC: World Bank. Processed. IMF. 2011. Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Staff Report and Public Information Notice. IMF Country Report 11/44. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund.
Jayne, T.S., N.M. Mason, R.J. Myers, R.J. Ferris, N. John, D. Mather, M. Beaver, N. Lenski, A. Chapoto, D. Boughton. 2010. “Patterns and Trends in Food Staples Markets in Eastern and Southern Africa.” International Development Working Paper 104. Ann Arbor: Michigan State University.
Lao PDR. 2010. Decree on the control of prices of goods and services. Prime Minister’s Office. Decree 474/PM. Vientiane: Processed (English translation by World Bank).
Martin, A. and K. Anderson. 2011. “Export restrictions and price insulation during commodity price booms.” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5645. Washington DC.
Minot, N. and F. Goletti.2000. “Rice Market Liberalization and Poverty in Vietnam.” International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report 114. Washington DC.
Sanogo I. and M. Amadou. 2010. “Rice Market Integration and Food Security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India.” Food Policy 35: 312-322.
Schiller, J.M., Chanphengxay, B. Linquist, and S. Appa Rao (eds). 2006. Rice in Laos. Los Baños (Phillipines): International Rice Research Institute.
FAO/MAF. 2009. Rice Assessment Survey. Vientiane: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Processed.
Sengua, P. V. Manivong, S. Xayachack, S. Sayavong. 2009. Rapid Assessment of Stocks and Marketing System of Paddy and Rice in Lao PDR. Vientiane: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute. Processed.
Shimelse A. and V. Eidelman. 2011. “The Surge in Food Prices: What’s Different This Time?” International Economic Bulletin (April 21). Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Takamatsu, S. 2002. Economic Analysis of Rice Market Integration in Laos. Master thesis. Kobe University: Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies.
Takamatsu, S. 2011. Impacts of the Global Food Price Crisis on Household Welfare and Poverty in Lao PDR. University of Minnesota: Department of Applied Economics. Processed. van der Weide, R. 2002. “GO-GARCH: A Multivariate Generalized Orthogonal GARCH Model.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 17 (5): 549-564.
van der Weide, R. 2006. The Variation in Prices in Various Commodities in Lao PDR. Background paper for the Lao Poverty Assessment. Washington DC: World Bank.
Vu, L.H. and P.W. Glewe. 2009. “Impacts of Rising Food Prices on Poverty and Welfare in Vietnam. Working Paper 13.” Hanoi: Development and Policies Research Center.
WFP. 2007. Lao PDR: Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis. World Food Progamme: Rome.
World Bank. 2009. Vulnerability and Safety Nets in Lao PDR. Vientiane: World Bank. Processed.
World Bank. 2011. Food Price Watch (April 21). Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Network. Washington DC: World Bank.