Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas

Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. and Vazquez Morales, Juan Carlos and Barraza de Anda, Martha P. (2010): Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas. Published in: Ensayos Revista de Economía , Vol. 30, No. 1 (11. May 2011): pp. 23-40.

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Abstract

This research analyzes short-run payroll dynamics associated with the maquiladora export sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. In contrast to other metropolitan economies for which similar econometric analyses have been completed, real currency movements are not found to be statistically significant. Explanatory variables that do satisfy the significance criterion include industrial activity in the United States, real wages, and the number of factories in operation. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1- to 24 months into the future.

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