Aydemir, Abdurrahman and Kirdar, Murat G. (2011): Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: the role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition.
Download (298Kb) | Preview
This paper examines the employment effects of an increase in labor supply using the politically-driven exodus of ethnic Turks from Bulgaria into Turkey in 1989. The strong involvement of the Turkish state in the settlement of earlier waves of repatriates provides us a strong source of exogenous variation in the 1989 immigrant shock across locations. Using a potential sample of 613 cities and towns in Turkey with variable treatment intensity—in some locations the change in the labor force is almost 10 percent—this analysis places much attention on constructing a matched sample that is well balanced in terms of covariate distributions of the treatment and comparison groups, including matching based on an estimated propensity score. We find a positive effect of repatriates on the unemployment of non-repatriates. In fact, in certain regions, a 10-percentage-point increase in the share of repatriates in the labor force increases the unemployment rate of natives by 4 percentage points. When the analysis is done according to skill groups, we find that the impact is the strongest on the young and on non-repatriates with similar educational attainment.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Quasi-experimental impact estimates of immigrant labor supply shocks: the role of treatment and comparison group matching and relative skill composition|
|Keywords:||Labor Force and Employment, Immigrant Workers, Quasi experiments|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J2 - Demand and Supply of Labor > J21 - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J6 - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies > J61 - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
|Depositing User:||Murat Kirdar|
|Date Deposited:||19. Dec 2011 22:58|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 19:03|
Altonji, Joseph, and David Card (1991). "The Effects of Immigration on the Labor Market Outcomes of Less-Skilled Natives," in J. Abowd and R. Freeman, eds.. Immigration. Trade and the Labor Market (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), pp. 201-234.
Angrist, J.D. and Kugler, A. (2003). Protective or Counter-Productive? Labor Market Institutions and the Effect of Immigration on EU Natives. The Economic Journal 113: F302-F331.
Angrist, Joshua D., and Krueger, Alan B. (1999). Empirical Strategies in Labor Economics, in Orley Ashenfelter and David Card, editors, Handbook of Labor Economics, volume 3A, pp. 1277-1366.
Amnesty International (1986). Bulgaria, Imprisonment of Ethnic Turks : Human Rights Abuses During the Forced Assimilation of the Ethnic Turkish Minority. London, Amnesty International Publications.
Aydemir A. and G. Borjas (2007). “Cross-Country Variation in the Impact of International Migration: Canada, Mexico, and the United States”. Journal of the European Economic Association. Vol. 5, issue 4, p. 663-708.
Aydemir A. and G. Borjas (2011). “Attenuation Bias in Measuring the Wage Impact of Immigration”. Journal of Labor Economics, vol. 29, no. 1, pages 69-112.
Behrman, Jere R.; Parker, Susan W.; Todd, Petra E. (2009). “Schooling Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfers on Young Children: Evidence from Mexico”. Economic Development and Cultural Change, v. 57, iss. 3, pp. 439-77.
Borjas, George J. (2003). “The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the Impact of Immigration on the Labor Market,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118, 1335-1374.
Borjas, George J. (2006). Native internal migration and the labor market impact of immigration. Journal of Human Resources 41, no. 2:221-258.
Borjas, George, Richard Freeman, and Lawrance Katz (1992). “On the Labor Market Effects of Immigration and Trade,” in G. Borjas and R. Freeman, eds., Immigration and the Work Force: Economic Consequences for the United States and Source Areas (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press) pp. 213-244.
Borjas, George, Richard Freeman, and Lawrence Katz (1996). "Searching for the Effect of Immigration on the Labor Market," American Economic Review, LXXXVI, 246-251.
Borjas, George, Richard Freeman, and Lawrence Katz (1997). “How Much Do Immigration and Trade Affect Labor Market Outcomes?” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 1-67.
Boustan L.P., Fishback P.V. and S. Kantor (2010). The Effect of Internal Migration on Local Labor Markets: American Cities during the Great Depression. Journal of Labor Economics 28: 719-746.
Card, David (1990). "The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market" Industrial and Labor Relations Review, XLIII, 245-257.
Card, David (2001). Immigrant inflows, native outflows, and the local 1abour market impacts of higher immigration. Journal of Labor Economics 19(2): 22–64.
Card, David, and Alan Krueger (1994). Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania. American Economic Review 84(4): 772-93.
Carrington, William, and Pedro deLima (1996). "The Impact of 1970s Repatriates from Africa on the Portuguese Labor Market," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, XLIX, 330-347.
Cortes, P. (2008). The Effect of Low-skilled Immigration on US Prices: Evidence from CPI Data, Journal of Political Economy, 116(3), pp. 381-422.
D'Amuri F., Ottaviano G. and G. Peri. (2010). The labor market impact of immigration in Western Germany in the 1990s. European Economic Review 54: 550-570.
Darby, Michael R., J. Haltiwanger, and M. Plant (1985). Unemployment Rate Dynamics and Persistent Unemployment under Rational Expectations, American Economic Review, Vol. 75, no. 4, pp. 614-637.
Dehejia, R.H. and S. Wahba (1999). “Causal Effects in Nonexperimental Studies: Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training Programs,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 94(448): 1053-62.
Devlet Planlama Teskilatı (DPT) (1990). Bulgaristan’dan Türk Göçleri, DPT Sosyal Planlama Baskanlığı Hizmete Özel Rapor, Ankara.
Doganay, F. (1996). Turkiye'ye Gocmen Olarak Gelenlerin Yerlesimi. Toplum ve Göç. II. Ulusal Sosyoloji Kongresi, Mersin, T.C. Basbakanlik Devlet Istatistik Enstitüsü : Sosyoloji Dernegi.
Dustmann C., Fabbri F., and I. Preston (2005). The impact of immigration on the British labour market. Economic Journal 115: F324-F341.
Friedberg, R. (2001). The Impact of Mass Migration on the Israeli Labor Market. Quarterly Journal of Economics 116(4): 1373-1408.
Geray, C. (1962). Türkiye’den ve Türkiye’ye Göçler (1923-1961), Türkiye İktisadi Gelişmesi Araştırma Projesi, No: 4, Ankara.
Glitz, A. (2011). The Labor Market Impact of Immigration: A Quasi-experiment Exploiting Immigrant Location Rules in Germany. Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming.
Griffith, Rachel; Neely, Andrew (2009). “Performance Pay and Managerial Experience in Multitask Teams: Evidence from within a Firm”, Journal of Labor Economics, v. 27, iss. 1, pp. 49-82
Heckman, J. J., Ichimura, H. and Todd, P. E. (1997), “Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme”, Review of Economic Studies, 64, 605–654
Hunt, Jennifer (1992). "The Impact of the 1962 Repatriates from Algeria on the French Labor Market," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, XLV, 556-572.
Imbens, G. and J. Wooldridge (2009). “Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation,” Journal of Economic Literature 47: 5-86.
Konukman, E. (1990). Tarihi belgeler isiginda büyük göç ve Anavatan : (nedenleri, boyutlari, sonuçlari). Ankara.
LaLonde, R. (1996). “Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data,” American Economic Review, 76(4): 604-20.
LaLonde, Robert, and Robert Topel (1991). "Labor Market Adjustments to Increased Immigration," Immigration, Trade and the Labor Market, J. Abowd and R. Freeman, eds. (C Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), pp. 167-199.
Mansour, H. (2010). The effects of labor supply shocks on labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Labour Economics 17: 930-939.
Meyer, B.D. (1995). “Natural and Quasi-experiments in Economics,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13(2): 151-61.
Meyer, B.D., Viscusi V.K., and Durbin D.L. (1995) Workers’ Compensation and Injury Duration: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. American Economic Review 85: 322-40.
Pischke J.S. and J. Velling (1997). Employment effects of immigration to Germany: An analysis based on local labor markets. Review of Economics and Statistics 79: 594-604.
Rosenbaum, P.R. and D.B. Rubin (1984). “Reducing Bias in Observational Studies Using Subclassification on the Propensity Score,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79(387): 516-24.
Rubin D.B. (2006). Matched Sampling for Causal Effects. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press.
Schoeni, Robert F. (1997). The effect of immigrants on the employment and wages of native workers: evidence from the 1970s and 1980s. Working Paper No. DRU-1408-IF, The Rand Corporation, Santa Monica, CA.
Taymaz E. and S. Özler (2005). Labor Market Policies and EU Accession: Problems and Prospects for Turkey. In B. Hoekman and S. Togan (eds.), Turkey: Towards EU Accession, The World Bank and CEPR, pp. 223-260.
Tunalı İ. (2003). Background Study on Labor Market and Employment in Turkey. Prepared for the European Training Foundation.
Vasileva, D. (1992). "Bulgarian Turkish Emigration and Return." International Migration Review 26(2): 342-352.