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Моделирование технологических и институциональных эффектов в макроэкономическом прогнозировании

Gnidchenko, Andrey (2011): Моделирование технологических и институциональных эффектов в макроэкономическом прогнозировании.

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Abstract

We conduct a comprehensive study of macroeconomic modeling methods, new theories of economic growth and the impact of technology and institutions on economic growth, in order to formulate the basic characteristics that are critical for efficient technological and institutional effects modeling. In the first chapter, we propose the original classification of the modern macroeconomic modeling methods, reflecting proportions between theoretical and empirical grounds. We also identify the main positive features and limitations of modern macroeconomic modeling methods. Particularly, we examine them through the lens of their usefulness in economic policy and forecasting. In the second chapter, we systematize the literature on endogenous economic growth theories. The mutual criticism of authors advocating different approaches is gathered together. As it is also shown, the explanation of technological progress in endogenous growth theories boils down to the presence of positive externalities. In the third chapter, we discuss different approaches to understanding the role of institutions and technologies in macroeconomic modeling. It is shown that there are no any serious contradictions among different approaches: quite often, one approach can be easily coupled with another, and their union then brings us new, potentially interesting interpretations. We also show that defragmentation of economic growth into components and their subsequent independent analysis is a perspective approach in analyzing economic growth, since the components depend on different factors. As a result, we formulate the basic characteristics of a hypothetical model, critical for the efficient technological and institutional effects modeling

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