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Bayesian Portfolio Selection in a Markov Switching Gaussian Mixture Model

Qian, Hang (2011): Bayesian Portfolio Selection in a Markov Switching Gaussian Mixture Model.

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Abstract

Departure from normality poses implementation barriers to the Markowitz mean-variance portfolio selection. When assets are affected by common and idiosyncratic shocks, the distribution of asset returns may exhibit Markov switching regimes and have a Gaussian mixture distribution conditional on each regime. The model is estimated in a Bayesian framework using the Gibbs sampler. An application to the global portfolio diversification is also discussed.

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