Halicioglu, Ferda (2007): A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey.
Download (68kB) | Preview
This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Institution:||Department of Economics, Yeditepe University|
|Original Title:||A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey|
|Keywords:||Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
F - International Economics > F4 - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance > F43 - Economic Growth of Open Economies
F - International Economics > F1 - Trade > F14 - Empirical Studies of Trade
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General
|Depositing User:||Ferda HALICIOGLU|
|Date Deposited:||14. Jun 2007|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 15:33|
Abual-Foul, B. (2004) Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan, Applied Economics Letters, 11, 393-396. Al Mamun, K. A. and Nath, H. K. (2005) Export-led growth In Bangladesh: a time series analysis, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 361-364. Awokuse, T. O. (2005a) Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 693-696. Awokuse, T. O. (2005b) Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 849-858. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Goswami, G. G. (2003) A disaggregated approach to test the J-curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 102-113. Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Domac, I. (1995) Export growth and economic growth in Turkey: evidence from cointegration analysis, METU Studies in Development, 22, 67-77. Balaguer, J. and Cantavella-Jorda, M. (2001) Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century, Applied Economics Letters, 8, 681-685. CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey), (2002) The Impact of Globalization on the Turkish Economy, Banknote Printing Plant Department, Ankara. Darrat, A. F., Hsu, M. K. and Zhong, M. (2000) Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence, Applied Economics Letters, 7, 563-567. Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A., (1979) Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. Engle, R. and Granger, C. (1987) Cointegration and error correction representation: estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276. Ertugrul, A. and Selcuk, F. (2001) A brief account of the Turkish economy, 1980-2000, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 37, 6-30. Fountas, S. (2000) Some evidence on the export-led growth hypothesis for Ireland, Applied Economics Letters, 7, 211-214. Giles, J. A. and Williams, C. L. (2000a) Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9, 261-337. Giles, J. A. and Williams, C. L. (2000b) Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9, 445-470. Hatemi-J, A. and Irandoust, M. (2000a) Export performance and economic growth causality: an empirical analysis, Atlantic Economic Journal, 28, 412-426 Hatemi-J, A. and Irandoust, M. (2000b) Time series evidence for Balassa’s export-led growth hypothesis, Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 9, 355-365. Johansen, S. (1988) Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 231-254. Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration–with application to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210. Johansen, S. (1996) Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Auto-Regressive Models 2nd edn., Oxford University Press, Oxford. Love, J. and Chandra, R. (2005a) Testing export-led growth in South Asia, Journal of Economic Studies, 32, 132-145. Love, J. and Chandra, R. (2005b) Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivariate VAR framework, Journal of Asian Economics, 15, 1155-1168 Mah, J. S. (2005) Export, expansion, economic growth and causality in China, Applied Economics Letters, 12, 105-107. Ozmen, E. and Furten, G. (1998) Export led-growth hypothesis and the Turkish data: an empirical investigation, METU Studies in Development, 28, 491-503. Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R.J. (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. Phillips, P. and Hansen, B. (1990) Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) process, Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. Phillips, P.C. and Perron, P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in a time series regression, Biometrica, 75, 335-346. Siliverstovs, B. and Herzer, D. (2006) Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence for Chile, Applied Economics Letters, 13, 319-324. Togan, S. (2004) Turkey: toward EU accession, The World Economy, 27, 1013-1045.