Chindamo, Phillip (2012): Developing a composite index of economic activity for Australia.
Download (275Kb) | Preview
This Economics Research Note outlines the development of a monthly Ai Group 'composite' index of economic activity for Australia. A simple weighted composite index is outlined, covering the three Ai Group performance indices as well proxies for the rural and mining sectors using available monthly data. This simple index shows that the economy has been generally in a slight contractionary phase in recent months, consistent with benign recent official data on the Australian economy.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Developing a composite index of economic activity for Australia|
|English Title:||Developing a composite index of economic activity for Australia|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles|
|Depositing User:||Phillip Chindamo|
|Date Deposited:||19. Jan 2012 08:28|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 22:51|
Asteriou, D. and Hall, S. (2007), Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach, revised edition. Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills. Aylmer, C. and Gill, T. (2003), ‘Business Surveys and Economic Activity’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Paper 2003-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. Blythe, M. (2005), ‘The Performance of Services Index (PSI): How is it Travelling?’. Available at: http:// 220.127.116.11/listco/au/cba/press/p20050203b.pdf. Accessed 10 August 2010. Ellis, C. (2010), ‘Were the PMIs a Good Guide to the European Recession?’. Available at: http://papers.ssrn. com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1621624. Getz, P. and Ulmer, M. (1990), ‘Diffusion Indexes: A Barometer of the Economy’, Monthly Labor Review, April, 113, 13–21. Granger, C. (1969), ‘Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods’, Econometrica, 37, 424–38. Harding, D., Song, L. and Tran, D. (2001), ‘Evaluation of the Australian Industry Group ⁄ Pricewaterhouse- Coopers – Performance of Manufacturing Index (Ai-PMI)’. Available at: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/ 3697/. Harris, E. (1991), ‘Tracking the Economy with the Purchasing Managers’ Index’, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Quarterly Review, 16 (3), 61–9. Institute for Supply Management (2010), ‘ISM Report on Business Frequently Asked Questions’. Available at: http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10706.