Papahristodoulou, Christos (2007): An analysis of Champions League match statistics.
Download (307kB) | Preview
Official match-play statistics from the Champions League tournament between 2001-02 and 2006-07 are used to estimate the impact of various variables on the performance of the teams, measured by goal difference. We find that offensive tactics measured by simple variables, such shots on goals, for both home and away teams, as well as the ranking of the teams, or measured by transformed variables, such as such as shots on goal and corners per ball possession, have a strong positive effect. Variables with negative effects are: the punishment of the teams, measured by own yellow and red cards per fouls committed, or simply the red cards, the shots wide, the corners, the ball possession difference and how smart the defendants are playing, measured by the number of the opposite teams’ offside per own ball possession. In addition, the multinomial logistic regressions show that the differences in some match statistics and the ranking of the teams explain 9 out of 10 home victories and almost 6 out of 10 home defeats. Finally, one of the strongest explanatory variables, the positive difference in shots on goal, compared to equality in shots on goal between teams, leads to a probability of a home team victory by 66%.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Institution:||Mälardalen University/School of Business|
|Original Title:||An analysis of Champions League match statistics|
|Keywords:||football; victory; defeat; goals; shots on goal; Champions League|
|Subjects:||L - Industrial Organization > L8 - Industry Studies: Services > L83 - Sports; Gambling; Recreation; Tourism|
|Depositing User:||Christos Papahristodoulou|
|Date Deposited:||18. Jun 2007|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2014 04:57|
Borland, J. (2005), Production functions for sporting teams, Working paper, Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, http://www.economics.unimelb.edu.au/staffprofile/jborland/Prodfunctforsportingteams.pdf
Buraimo, B., Forrest D. and Simmons R. (2007), The twelve man? Refereing bias in English and German soccer, International Association of Sports Economists, Working Paper Series, No. 07-07.
Caliedo, M. and D. Radic (2006), Ten do it better, do they? An empirical analysis of an old football myth, IZA Discussion Paper No. 2158.
Carmichael, F. and D. Thomas (1995), Production and efficiency in team sports: An investigation of rugby league football, Applied Economics, 27, 859-69.
Carmichael, F., Thomas, D. and Ward, R. (2000), Team Performance: The Case of English Premiership Football, Managerial and Decision Economics, 21, 31-45.
Carmichael, F., Thomas, D. and Ward, R. (2001), Production and efficiency in association football, Journal of Sports Economics, 2, 228-43. Carmichael, F. and D. Thomas (2005), Why did Greece win? An analysis of team performances at Euro 2004, Management and Management Science Research Institute Working Paper, 206/05, School of Accounting, Economics and Management Science, University of Salford. Caruso, R. (2007), The economics of match-fixing, Munich Personal RePEc Archive, Paper No. 3085, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/3085/
Chan, Y H (2005), Biostatics 305: Multinomial logistic regression, CME Article, Singapore Med J, 46(6): 259
Dawson, P., S. Dobson and B. Gerrard (2000a), Estimating coaching efficiency in professional team sports: Evidence from English association football, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 47, 399-421.
Dawson, P., S. Dobson and B. Gerrard (2000b), Stochastic frontiers and the temporal structure of managerial efficiency in English soccer, Journal of Sports Economics, 1, 341-362.
Espita-Escuer, M. and L. Garcia-Cebrian (2004), Measuring the efficiency of Spanish first-division soccer teams, Journal of Sports Economics, 5, 329-46.
Falter, J-M., and C. Pérignon (2000), Demand for football and intramatch wining probability: an essay on the glorious uncertainty of sports, Applied Economics, 32, 1757-65.
Fort, R. and J. Quirk (1995), Cross-subsidization, incentives, and outcomes in professional team sports leagues, Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 1265-99.
Garicano, L., Palacios-Huerta, I. and C. Prendergast (2005), Favoritism under social pressure, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 208-16.
Hirotshu, N. and M. B. Wright (2006), Modelling tactical changes of formation in association football as a zero-sum game, Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 2 (2), Article 4.
Hosmer, D. W., and S. Lemeshow. 2000. Applied Logistic Regression, 2nd ed. New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Kahn, L. (1993), Managerial quality, team success, and individual player performance in major leaguer baseball, Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 46, 531-547.
Kern, M. and B. Sussmuth (2003), Managerial Efficiency in German Top League Soccer, Discussion paper, Department of Economics, University of Munich, http://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de.
Krautmann, A. (1990), Shirking or stochastic productivity in major league baseball, Southern Economic Journal, 56, 961-68.
Lucey, B. and D. Power (2004), Do soccer referees display home team favouritism?, mimeo, Trinity College, Dublin.
Norusis, M. 2005. SPSS 15.0 Advanced Statistical Procedures Companion. Upper Saddle-River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Inc.
Pollard, R. (2002), Evidence of a reduced home advantage when a team moves to a new stadium, Journal of Sports Sciences, 20, 969-73.
Pollard, R. and C. Reep (1997), Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer, The Statistician, 46, No. 4, 541-50.
Scarf, P. and M. Bilbao (2006), The optimal design of sporting contests, Salford Business School Working Paper series, No. 320/06.
Scully, G. (1974), Pay and performance in major league baseball, American Economic Review, 64, 915-30.
Seckin, A. (2006), Home advantage in association football: Evidence from Turkish Super League, Paper presented at the ECOMOD Conference in Hong Kong, June 28-30, 2006.
Szymanski, S. (2003), The economic design of sporting contests, Journal of Economic Literature, 41, 1137-87.
Available Versions of this Item
- An analysis of Champions League match statistics. (deposited 18. Jun 2007) [Currently Displayed]