Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade?

Chen, Shiu-Sheng and Hsu, Kai-Wei (2012): Reverse Globalization: Does High Oil Price Volatility Discourage International Trade? Forthcoming in:

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Abstract

This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. We therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization.

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