Josheski, Dushko and Nikola, Dimitrov and Koteski, Cane (2012): Population and economic growth theme: Longitudinal data for a sample of Balkan countries.
Download (792Kb) | Preview
In this paper we use pooled cross-sectional (longitudinal data) in a sample of 10 Balkan countries. The period we cover is from 1950-2009 data are for population and economic growth. In the theoretical part we present optimal intergenerational model of population growth. The optimal population growth depends on capital in the future period and future consumption. Consumption should be greater than zero, and less than total capital of the current generation. In the econometric part OLS regression with dummies the coefficient on Macedonia,is highest significant coefficient meaning, if we control for Macedonia we will on average find more positive association between growth of GDP and population growth. Hausman test was in favor of fixed effects model, but fixed effects and Random effects model showed that there is positive coefficient between GDP growth and population growth. Coefficient in the FE model was statistically significant, which was not case in RE model. From the Fischer’s panel unit root test we reject the null hypothesis that panels contain unit root and we accept the alternative that at least one panel is stationary, for the population growth and GDP growth.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Population and economic growth theme: Longitudinal data for a sample of Balkan countries|
|Keywords:||Population growth, economic growth, Fixed effects model, Random effects model, OLS with dummies model|
|Subjects:||R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R23 - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population; Neighborhood Characteristics|
|Depositing User:||DJ Josheski|
|Date Deposited:||26. Feb 2012 17:18|
|Last Modified:||18. Feb 2013 20:07|
 Alan Heston, Robert Summers and Bettina Aten, Penn World Table Version 7.0, Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, May 2011.
 Assaf Razin and Uri Ben-Zion,(1973), An intergenerational model of population growth, Discussion Paper No. 73-34,University of Minnesota
 Badi H. Baltagi,(2008), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data,Wiley
 Birdsall, N., (1988), Handbook of development economics, Volume 1, edited by T.N.Srinivasan
 Greene, William H., (2008), Econometric analysis, Upper Saddle River, N.J. : Prentice Hall, 2008
 Greene, W. (2001), Estimating Econometric Models with Fixed Effects, Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University
 Michael Kremer (1993), "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," Quarterly Journal of Economics 108:3 (August), pp. 681-716.
 Ramsey, F. P. (1928), A Mathematical theory of saving, The Economic journal Vol.38 No.152
 Paul R. Ehrlich and John P. Holdren,(1971), Impact of Population Growth, Science, New Series, Vol. 171, No. 3977 (Mar. 26, 1971), pp. 1212-1217
 Podestà,F.(2002),Recent developments in quantitative comparative methodology: The case of pooled time series cross-section analysis, DSS PAPERS SOC 3-02
 Wooldridge, J.M., 1995, Selection corrections for panel data models under conditional mean independence assumptions, Journal of Econometrics 68, 115-132.