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Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001-2003: A Probit Model Analysis

Gambetta Podesta, Renzo (2007): Poverty Dynamics in Peru 2001-2003: A Probit Model Analysis.

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Abstract

The objectives of this paper consist on two main parts:a descriptive one and an explanatory one. For the first part I used transition matrices to identify people who entered and left the poverty line in Peru between 2001-2003.Probabilistic regressions models were used to explain the main determinants of poverty dynamics.

Changes in house members, decrease of active members,changes in years of schooling and changes in the access of essential public services play an important role to explain the dynamics poverty in Peru in those years. Otherwise,just only 28% of the households were never poor,15% were poor for once and 38% were always poor. This document also tries to explain that poverty in Peru can not be treated like a static process and the public policies never be focus in established profiles of poverty in a unique period of time, they have to be in constant checking.

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