Marimo, Pricilla and Kaplan, Todd R and Mylne, Ken and Sharpe, Martin (2012): Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts.
Download (1MB) | Preview
Experimental economics methods were used to assess public understanding of information in weather forecasts and test whether the participants were able to make better decisions using the probabilistic information presented in table or bar graph formats than if they are presented with a deterministic forecast. We asked undergraduate students from the University of Exeter to choose the most probable temperature outcome between a set of “lotteries” based on the temperature up to five days ahead. If they choose a true statement, participants were rewarded with a cash reward. Results indicate that on average participants provided with uncertainty information make better decisions than those without. Statistical analysis indicates a possible learning effect as the experiment progressed. Furthermore, participants who were shown the graph with uncertainty information took on average less response time compared to those who were shown a table with uncertainty information.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Communication of uncertainty in weather forecasts|
|Keywords:||experimental economics; uncertainty; decision making; bar graph; table|
|Subjects:||D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
|Depositing User:||Pricilla Marimo|
|Date Deposited:||23. Apr 2012 23:53|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 18:09|
Anderson, J. C., and J. M. Mueller, 2005: The Effects Of Experience And Data Presentation Format On An Auditing Judgment. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 21, 53-63.
Back, W. E., W. W. Boles, and G. T. Fry, 1999: Defining triangular probability distributions from historical cost data. Anglais, 126, 29-37.
Benbasat, I., and A. S. Dexter, 1985: An Experimental Evaluation of Graphical and Color-Enhanced Information Presentation. Management Science, 31, 1348-1364.
Cardinaels, E., 2008: The interplay between cost accounting knowledge and presentation formats in cost-based decision-making. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 33, 582-602.
Chua, H., J. Yates, and P. Shah, 2006: Risk avoidance: Graphs versus numbers. Memory & Cognition, 34, 399-410.
Dickson, G. W., G. DeSanctis, and D. J. McBride, 1986: Understanding the effectiveness of computer graphics for decision support: a cumulative experimental approach. Communications of the ACM, 29, 40-47.
Driver, R., N. Chater, B. Cheung, M. Latham, R. Lewis, and H. Stott, 2010: Helping Consumers Understand Investment Risk. Asssociation of British Insurers (ABI).
Evans, M., N. Hastings, and B. Peacock, 2000: Statistical Distributions. 3rd ed. Wiley-Interscience. New York. pg 187-188.
Fleming, N., and C. Mills, 1992: Not Another Inventory, Rather a Catalyst for Reflection. To Improve the Academy, 11, 137.
Ghani, E. K., F. Laswad, S. Tooley, and K. Jusoff, 2009: The Role of Presentation Format on Decision-makers’ Behaviour in Accounting. International Business Research 2. Hesse, R., 2000: In The Classroom. Triangle Distribution: Mathematica Link for Excel. Decision Line 31.
Johnson, D., 1997: The triangular distribution as a proxy for the beta distribution in risk analysis. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series D (The Statistician), 46, 387-398.
Kotz, S., 2004: Beyond Beta: Other Continuous Families of Distributions with Bounded Support and Applications. World Scientific Publishing. Co. Pte. Ltd
Larham, R., 2010: Project Costing with the Triangular Distribution and Moment Matching. Math Help Forum Journal
Lusk, E. J., and M. Kersnick, 1979: The Effect of Cognitive Style and Report Format on Task Performance: The MIS Design Consequences. Management Science, 25, 787-798.
NRC, 2006: Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts National Academies Press.
Remus, W., 1984: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Graphical and Tabular Data Presentations on Decision Making. Management Science, 30, 533-542.
Roulston, M. S., and T. R. Kaplan, 2009: A laboratory-based study of understanding of uncertainty in 5-day site-specific temperature forecasts. Meteorological Applications, 16, 237-244.
Roulston, M. S., G. E. Bolton, A. N. Kleit, and A. L. Sears-Collins, 2006: A Laboratory Study of the Benefits of Including Uncertainty Information in Weather Forecasts. Weather and Forecasting, 21, 116-122.
So, S., and M. Smith, 2003: The impact of presentation format and individual differences on the communication of information for management decision making. Managerial Auditing Journal, 18 59 - 67.
Speier, C., 2006: The influence of information presentation formats on complex task decision-making performance. International Journal of Human-Computer Studies, 64, 1115-1131.
Sullivan, J. J., 1988: Financial Presentation Format and Managerial Decision Making. Management Communication Quarterly, 2, 194-216.
Vessey, I., and D. Galletta, 1991: Cognitive Fit: An Empirical Study of Information Acquisition. Information Systems Research, 2, 63-84.
Winett, R. A., and J. H. Kagel, 1984: Effects of Information Presentation Format on Resource Use in Field Studies. The Journal of Consumer Research, 11, 655-667.
Zmud, R. W., 1978: An Empirical Investigation of the Dimensionality of the Concept of Information. Decision Science, 9, 187-195.