Kitov, Ivan and Kitov, Oleg (2012): Real GDP per capita since 1870.

PDF
MPRA_paper_39021.pdf Download (700kB)  Preview 
Abstract
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components – a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. This numerator is equivalent to a constant annual increment of real GDP per capita. For the most advanced economies, the GDP estimates between 1950 and 2007 have shown very weak and statistically insignificant linear trends (both positive and negative) in the annual increment. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are characterized by practically normal distribution. For many countries, there exist historical estimates of real GDP since 1870. These estimates extend the time span of our analysis together with a few new estimates from 2008 to 2011. There are severe structural breaks in the corresponding time series between 1940 and 1950, with the slope of linear regression increasing by a factor of 4.0 (Switzerland) to 22.1 (Spain). Therefore, the GDP estimates before 1940 and after 1950 have been analysed separately. All findings of the original study are validated by the newly available data. The most important is that all slopes (except that for Australia after 1950) of the regression lines obtained for the annual increments of real GDP per capita are small and statistically insignificant, i.e. one cannot reject the null hypothesis of a zero slope and thus constant increment. Hence the growth in real GDP per capita is a linear one since 1870 with a break in slope between 1940 and 1950.
Item Type:  MPRA Paper 

Original Title:  Real GDP per capita since 1870 
English Title:  Real GDP per capita since 1870 
Language:  English 
Keywords:  GDP, model, economic growth, inertia, trend, OECD 
Subjects:  O  Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O1  Economic Development > O11  Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development E  Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3  Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32  Business Fluctuations; Cycles O  Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O5  Economywide Country Studies > O57  Comparative Studies of Countries 
Item ID:  39021 
Depositing User:  Ivan Kitov 
Date Deposited:  25. May 2012 13:43 
Last Modified:  12. Feb 2013 14:36 
References:  Bouchaud, J.P., (2008). Economics needs scientific revolution. Nature, 455, 30 October 2008. Conference Board. (2012). Total Economy Database. http://www.conferenceboard.org/data / economydatabase/ Durlauf, S., Johnson, P., Temple, J. (2005). Growth econometrics, in the Handbook of Economic Growth, Eds. Aghion, P., Durlauf, S., Elsevier, NorthHolland. Galor, O. (2005). From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory, in the Handbook of Economic Growth, Eds. Aghion, P., Durlauf, S., Elsevier, NorthHolland. Kitov, I. (2006a). Real GDP per capita in developed countries, MPRA Paper 2738, University Library of Munich, Germany. Kitov, I. (2006b). GDP growth rate and population, Working Papers 42, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality. Kitov, I., (2009). The Evolution of Real GDP Per Capita in Developed Countries. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. IV(1(8)_ Summ), pp. 221234. Kitov, I. and O. Kitov (2010). Mecħanomics. Economics as Classical Mechanics. LAP Lambert Academic Publishing (October 22, 2010), pp. 504. Kitov, I., Kitov, O., Dolinskaya, S. (2009). Modelling real GDP per capita in the USA: cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. IV(1(7)_ Spr), pp. 8096. Maddison, A. (2004). Contours of the World Economy and the Art of Macromeasurement 15002001. Ruggles Lecture, IARIW 28th General Conference, Cork, Ireland August 2004 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). (2005). Methodological Notes related to the OECD publication. Labor Force Statistics 19842004 – 2005, Edition 24Aug2005. Pedregal, D. (2005). Trend models for the prediction of economic cycles. Review on Economic Cycles. International Association of Economic Cycles, 3(1), December. Pollock, D. (2007). Investigation economic trends and cycles. University of Leicester, Working Paper No. 07/17, November 2007. Solow, R. M. (1956). A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics , 70 (1), pp. 65–94. Swan, T. W. (1956). Economic Growth and Capital Accumulation. Economic Record, 32 (2), pp. 334–361. 
URI:  http://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/id/eprint/39021 