Cernadas, Luis (2010): Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia.
Download (670Kb) | Preview
Using a Structural Vector Autoregression approach (SVAR), the paper estimates the response of output, price levels, private investment and consumption to expansive and contractive fiscal shocks. The results show that government spending shocks have a positive effect on GDP. On the other hand, a tax increase has a negative effect on the output, through the contraction of consumption and private investment. By disaggregating government spending on consumption and investment, shows that growth in the short run would be motivated by increases in government consumption and public investment. However, in the long run public investment is the fiscal factor with greatest impact on economic growth. Finally, we find that after an increase in public spending, private investment reacts negatively (empirical evidence of a crowding-out effect). Also, higher spending volumes derived in permanent increases in the price level.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia|
|English Title:||Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia|
|Keywords:||Fiscal Policy, Structural VAR, Public Expenditure, Bolivia|
|Subjects:||E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E6 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, Macroeconomic Policy, and General Outlook > E62 - Fiscal Policy|
|Depositing User:||Luis Cernadas|
|Date Deposited:||28. Jun 2012 10:20|
|Last Modified:||19. Feb 2013 18:11|
Afonso, A. y Sousa, R. (2009), “The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy”, ECB Working Paper Series No. 991.
Alesina, A. y Ardagna, S. (1998), “Tales of Fiscal Adjustments”, Economic Policy No. 27, Octubre.
Alesina, A. y Perotti, R. (1997), "The Welfare State and Competitiveness", American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), páginas 921-39.
Baxter, M. y King, R. (1993), “Fiscal policy in general equilibrium”. American Economic Review, 83, pp. 315-334.
Blanchard, O. y Perotti, R. (1999), “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output”, NBER Working Paper No 7269.
Burnside, C., Eichenbaum, M. y Fisher, J. (2003), “Fiscal shocks and their consequenses”, NBER Working Paper No. 9772.
Cerda, R., Gonzales, H. Y Lagos, L. (2005), “Efectos dinámicos de la política fiscal”, Cuadernos de economía, Vol. 42 (Mayo), pp. 63-77.
Edelberg, W., Eichenbaum, M. y Fisher, J. (1999), “Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases”, Review of Economics Dynamics, Vol. II, pp. 166-206.
Enders, W. (2004), “Applied Econometric Times Series”, 2nd Edition, Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics.
Fatás, A. y Mihov, I. (2001), “The effects of fiscal policy on consumption and employment: theory and evidence”. CEPR Discussion Paper Series No. 2760.
Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. y Vegh, C., (2009), “How Big are Fiscal Multipliers?”, Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Policy Insight. 39.
Galí, J., López-Salido, D. y Vallés, J. (2007), “Understanding the effects of government spending on consumption”, Journal of the European Economic Association, No 5, pp. 227-270.
Lozano, I. y Rodriguez, K. (2009), “Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia”, Borradores de Economía, No 552.
McDermott, J. y Wescott, R.(1996), “An Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Adjustments”, IMF Staff Papers, Fondo Monetario Internacional, Vol. 43 (Diciembre), pp. 725-53.
Mountford, A. y Uhlig, H. (2008), “What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?”, NBER Working Paper No. 14551.
Perotti, R. (1999), “Fiscal policy in good times and bad”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, No 114, pp. 1399-1436.
Perotti, R. (2004a), “Estimating the effects of fiscal policy in OECD countries”. Innocenso Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Working Paper No 276.
Perotti, R. (2004b), “Public investment: Another (Different) look”. Innocenso Gasparini Institute for Economic Research, Working Paper No 277.
Perotti, R. (2007), “In search of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy”. NBER, Working Paper No 13143.
Ramey, V. y Shapiro, M. (1997), “Costly Capital Reallocation and the Effects of Government Spending”, NBER Working Paper No 6283.
Ramey, V. (2007), “Comment on "In search of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy", En NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22.
Rezk, E., Avramovich, M. y Basso, M. (2006), ”Efectos dinámicos de shocks fiscales sobre diversas variables macroeconómicas: Un análisis de VAR estructural para Argentina”, versión presentada en el XVIII Seminario regional de Política Fiscal, CEPAL.
Romer, C. y Romer, D. (2007), “The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: estimates based on a new measure of fiscal shocks”. NBER Working Paper Series No. 13264.
Warnock, F. y Cacdac, V. (2006), “International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest”, NBER Working Paper Series 12560.