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Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia

Cernadas, Luis (2010): Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia.

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Abstract

Using a Structural Vector Autoregression approach (SVAR), the paper estimates the response of output, price levels, private investment and consumption to expansive and contractive fiscal shocks. The results show that government spending shocks have a positive effect on GDP. On the other hand, a tax increase has a negative effect on the output, through the contraction of consumption and private investment. By disaggregating government spending on consumption and investment, shows that growth in the short run would be motivated by increases in government consumption and public investment. However, in the long run public investment is the fiscal factor with greatest impact on economic growth. Finally, we find that after an increase in public spending, private investment reacts negatively (empirical evidence of a crowding-out effect). Also, higher spending volumes derived in permanent increases in the price level.

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