Shachat, Jason and Swarthout, J. Todd and Wei, Lijia (2012): A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games.
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We propose a statistical model to assess whether individuals strategically use mixed strategies in repeated games. We formulate a hidden Markov model in which the latent state space contains both pure and mixed strategies, and allows switching between these states. We apply the model to data from an experiment in which human subjects repeatedly play a normal form game against a computer that always follows its part of the unique mixed strategy Nash equilibrium profile. Estimated results show significant mixed strategy play and non-stationary dynamics. We also explore the ability of the model to forecast action choice.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||A hidden Markov model for the detection of pure and mixed strategy play in games|
|Keywords:||Mixed Strategy; Experiment; Hidden Markov Model|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C9 - Design of Experiments > C92 - Laboratory, Group Behavior
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C7 - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory > C72 - Noncooperative Games
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C11 - Bayesian Analysis: General
|Depositing User:||Jason Shachat|
|Date Deposited:||07. Jul 2012 03:44|
|Last Modified:||17. Feb 2013 17:31|
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