Guzman, Giselle C. (2007): Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns. Published in: The Making of National Economic Forecasts No. Edward Elgar Publishing LTD (2009): pp. 319-351.
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This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16 sentiment surveys of distinct respondent universes and employ the technique of principal components analysis to extract the common signals from the surveys. I show that the ability of different population groups to anticipate correctly economic growth and excess stock returns is not identical, implying that not all sentiment is the same, although there exist some common components. I demonstrate that sentiment surveys have significant predictive power for both GDP growth and excess stock returns, and that the results are robust to the inclusion of information pertaining to the macroeconomic environment and momentum. Furthermore, the findings reject the conventional wisdom that the effect of sentiment is apparent exclusively in small-capitalization stocks.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns|
|Keywords:||sentiment; surveys; expectations; GDP growth; stock returns; small-cap stocks, Efficient Markets Hypothesis; anomalies; predictability; economic growth; principal components analysis; signal extraction; composite factors; synthetic variables|
|Subjects:||Y - Miscellaneous Categories > Y4 - Dissertations (unclassified) > Y40 - Dissertations (unclassified)
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C52 - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E2 - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment > E21 - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
D - Microeconomics > D5 - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium > D53 - Financial Markets
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D84 - Expectations; Speculations
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E1 - General Aggregative Models > E17 - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C02 - Mathematical Methods
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G14 - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies
D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D11 - Consumer Economics: Theory
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs > C82 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C63 - Computational Techniques; Simulation Modeling
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E5 - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit > E51 - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E4 - Money and Interest Rates > E44 - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General > C13 - Estimation: General
D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D03 - Behavioral Economics; Underlying Principles
E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics > E3 - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles > E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G - Financial Economics > G1 - General Financial Markets > G12 - Asset Pricing; Trading volume; Bond Interest Rates
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C5 - Econometric Modeling > C53 - Forecasting and Prediction Methods; Simulation Methods
D - Microeconomics > D1 - Household Behavior and Family Economics > D12 - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
D - Microeconomics > D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty > D83 - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C4 - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics > C42 - Survey Methods
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C8 - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs > C81 - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data
D - Microeconomics > D0 - General > D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C0 - General > C01 - Econometrics
|Depositing User:||Giselle Guzman|
|Date Deposited:||20. Jul 2012 18:39|
|Last Modified:||13. Feb 2013 22:48|
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Using sentiment to predict GDP growth and stock returns. (deposited 12. Feb 2012 04:57)
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