Baker, J and McPhedran, S (2007): Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference? Published in: British Journal of Criminology No. 47 (2007): pp. 455-469.
Download (257Kb) | Preview
Mass murders in Dunblane, United Kingdom, and Port Arthur, Australia, provoked rapid responses from the governments of both countries. Major changes to Australian laws resulted in a controversial buy-back of longarms and tighter legislation. The Australian situation enables evaluation of the effect of a national buy-back, accompanied by tightened legislation in a country with relatively secure borders. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was used to predict future values of the time series for homicide, suicide and accidental death before and after the 1996 National Firearms Agreement (NFA). When compared with observed values, firearm suicide was the only parameter the NFA may have influenced, although societal factors could also have influenced observed changes. The findings have profound implications for future firearm legislation policy direction.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Gun laws and sudden death: Did the Australian firearms legislation of 1996 make a difference?|
|Keywords:||Firearms; legislation; homicide; suicide|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C20 - General
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I1 - Health > I18 - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
|Depositing User:||Samara McPhedran|
|Date Deposited:||07. Aug 2012 11:55|
|Last Modified:||12. Feb 2013 00:07|
BAKER, J. and MCPHEDRAN, S. (2004), ‘Inside or Outside the Law? Tightening Legislation and the Principles of Firearms Ownership’, paper presented at the Crime and International Connection Conference convened by the Australian Institute of Criminology, Melbourne, 2004.
BEAUTRAIS, A. L. (2000), ‘Risk Factors for Suicide and Attempted Suicide among Young People’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 34: 420–36.
BEAUTRAIS, A. L., FERGUSSON, D. M. and HORWOOD, L. J. (2006), ‘Firearms Legislation and Reductions in Firearm-Related Suicide Deaths in New Zealand’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 40: 253–9.
CANTOR, C. and NEULINGER, K. (2000), ‘The Epidemiology of Suicide and Attempted Suicide among Young Australians’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 34: 370–87.
CARCACH, C., MOUZOS, J. and GRABOSKY, P. (2002), ‘The Mass Murder as Quasi-Experiment: The Impact of the 1996 Port Arthur Massacre’, Homicide Studies, 6: 107–27.
CHANG, J., BERG, C. J., SALTZMAN, L. E. and HERNDON, J. (2005), ‘A Leading Cause of Injury Deaths among Pregnant and Postpartum Women in the United States, 1991–1999’, American Journal of Public Health, 95: 471–7.
COOK, P. J., MOORE, M. H. and BRAGA, A. A. (2001), ‘Gun Control’, Working Paper Series SANO1-14, Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Durham, NC.
CORNISH, D. and CLARKE, R. V. (1986), ‘Crime as a Rational Choice’, in D. Cornish and R. V. Clarke, eds, The Reasoning Criminal. New York: Springer-Verlag.
——(1987), ‘Understanding Crime Displacement: An Application of Rational Choice Theory’, Criminology, 25: 933–47.
DE LEO, D., EVANS, R. and NEULINGER, K. (2002), ‘Hanging, Firearm, and Non-Domestic Gas Suicides among Males: A Comparative Study’, Australian and New Zealand Journal of Psychiatry, 36: 183–9.
DOUGLAS, R. (1997), ‘Gun Laws and Sudden Death: Do They Make Much Difference?’, Australian Quarterly, 69: 50–62.
DUGGAN, M. (2003), ‘Guns and Suicide’, in J. Ludwig and P. J. Cook, eds, Evaluating Gun Policy: Effects on Crime and Violence. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
GAWRYSZEWSKI, V. P., KAHN, T. and JORGE, M. H. P. D. (2005), ‘Linking of Information from Health and Security Databases on Homicides’, Revista De Saude Publica, 39: 627–33.
GUERETTE, R. T., STENIUS, V. M. K. and MCGLOIN, J. M. (2005), ‘Understanding Offense Specialization and Versatility: A Reapplication of the Rational Choice Perspective’, Journal of Criminal Justice, 33: 77–87.
JOHNS, R. (2004), Firearms Restrictions: Recent Developments, Briefing Paper No. 3. Sydney: New South Wales Parliamentary Library.
KATES, D. B. Jr (1990), Guns, Murders, and the Constitution: A Realistic Assessment of Gun Control. San Francisco: Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy.
KELLERMANN, A., RIVARA, F. P., RUSHFORTH, N. B., BANTON, J. G., REAY, D. T., FRANCISCO, J. T., LOCCI, A. B., PRODZINSKI, J., HACKMAN, B. B. and SOMES, G. (1993), ‘Gun Ownership as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the Home’, New England Journal of Medicine, 329: 1084–91.
KILLIAS, M., VAN KESTEREN, J. and RINDLISBACHER, M. (2001), ‘Guns, Violent Crime, and Suicide in 21 Countries’, Canadian Journal of Criminology, 43: 429–48.
KREISFELD, R., NEWSON, R. and HARRISON, J. (2004), ‘Injury Deaths, Australia, 2002’, Injury Research and Statistics Series Number 23, National Injury Surveillance Unit, Flinders University, South Australia.
LUDWIG, J. and COOK, P. (2000), ‘Homicide and Suicide Rates Associated with Implementation of the Brady Handgun Violence Prevention Act’, Journal of the American Medical Association, 284: 585–91.
MCDOWALL, D., MCCLEARY, R., MEIDINGER, E. and HAY, R. (1980), Interrupted Time Series Analysis, Sage University Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences. Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications.
MILLER, M., AZRAEL, D., HEPBURN, L., HEMENWAY, D. and LIPPMANN, S. J. (2006), ‘The Association between Changes in Household Firearm Ownership and Rates of Suicide in the United States, 1981–2002’, Injury Prevention, 12: 178–82.
MOUZOS, J. (1999), ‘Firearm-Related Violence: The Impact of the Nationwide Agreement on Firearms’, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, 116. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
——(2000a), ‘International Traffic in Firearms: Emerging Issues’, paper presented at the Transnational Crime Conference convened by the Australian Institute of Criminology in association with the Australian Federal Police and Australian Customs Service, Canberra, 9–10 March 2000.
——(2000b), ‘The Licensing and Registration Status of Firearms Used in Homicide’, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, 151. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
——(2001), ‘Firearm-Related Morbidity in Australia, 1994–95 to 1998–99’, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, 198. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
——(2002), ‘Firearms Theft in Australia’, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, 230. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
——(2005), ‘Homicide in Australia: 2003–2004 National Homicide Monitoring Program (NHMP) Annual Report’, No. 66 Research and Public Policy Series. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
MOUZOS, J. and RUSHFORTH, C. (2003), ‘Firearm Related Deaths in Australia, 1991–2001’, Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, 269. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
MOUZOS, J. and SAKURAI, Y. (2006), ‘Firearms Theft in Australia: A Six Month Exploratory Analysis’, Technical and Background Paper No. 20. Canberra: Australian Institute of Criminology.
RAE-GRANT, N., MCCONVILLE, B. J., FLECK, S., KENNEDY, J. S., VAUGHAN, W. T., STEINER, H., BERNARD, V., DECI, P., MACMILLAN, H., MAKINI, G., OFFORD, D. R., SILVERMAN, M. M. and THOMAS, L. (1999), ‘Violent Behavior in Children and Youth: Preventive Intervention from a Psychiatric Perspective’, Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 38: 235–41.
REUTER, P. and MOUZOS, J. (2003), ‘Australia: A Massive Buyback of Low-Risk Guns’, in J. Ludwig and P. J. Cook, eds, Evaluating Gun Policy: Effects on Crime and Violence. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.
WALKER, F. (1999), ‘Crooks Dodge Gun Controls’, The Sun Herald, 28 November, p. 41.