Mapa, Dennis S. and Lucagbo, Michael and Balisacan, Arsenio M. and Corpuz, Jose Rowell T. and Ignacio, Czarina Lei S. (2012): Is Income Growth Enough to Reduce Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines? Empirical Evidence from Regional Panel Data.
Download (217kB) | Preview
The population debate in the country has been dynamic and contentious. On the one hand, proponents of population management say that the rapid population growth in the Philippines has hindered the country’s economic development. On the other hand, others are saying that population growth is uncorrelated with economic growth. The core idea behind the link between population and economic growth is the demographic transition. Demographic transition is a change from a situation of high fertility and high mortality to one of low fertility and low mortality. Advocates of speeding the demographic transition placed emphasis on the need of public efforts to speed up the voluntary reduction in fertility rates as rapidly as possible, arguing that demographic transitions, where they have occurred, have typically been accelerated and even triggered, by proactive government policies. Those that are against direct government intervention argue that fertility rates fall when income rises and therefore, policies to increase income should be the main concern. This paper looks at the relationship between per capita income and total fertility rate (TFR), controlling for other factors, using a regional panel econometric model using data from the National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS), Family Planning Survey (FPS), Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Labor Force Survey (LFS) and the Regional Gross Domestic Product (RGDP). The results show that increasing per capita income indeed reduces TFR but its impact is minimal and given that the country average per capita growth is low, it will take some time before the country benefits from the demographic transition through the income effect alone. The results of the analysis can also explain why the decline in fertility rate in the Philippines has been slower in recent times, lagging behind the significant changes in the international scene.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Is Income Growth Enough to Reduce Total Fertility Rate in the Philippines? Empirical Evidence from Regional Panel Data|
|Keywords:||Total Fertility Rate, Demographic Transition, Fixed Effects Model|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C23 - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J11 - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
|Depositing User:||Dennis S. Mapa|
|Date Deposited:||19. Aug 2012 16:27|
|Last Modified:||14. Feb 2013 06:23|
Bloom, D.E. and Williamson, J.G. (1997). “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia.” Working Paper 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, November 1997.
Cabigon, Josefina V. (2007) Abortion and Contraception: Their Role in Explaining Fertility Change. Human Capital and Development in the Philippines. A PIDS Working Paper p.145 to 184. Makati City: PIDS.
Collado, Roselle V. (2010). “Regional Divides in the Correlates of Fertility: An Analysis of the 2008 NDHS.” A paper presented during the 11th National Convention on Statistics (NCS), October 4-5, 2010, EDSA Shangri-La Hotel, Mandaluyong City.
Herrin, A.N. and M.P. Costello (1996). Sources of Future Population Growth in the Philippines and Implications for Public Policy. New York: The Population Council.
Mapa, D. S. and A. Balisacan (2004). “Quantifying the Impact of Population on Economic Growth and Poverty: The Philippines in an East Asian Context.” In: Population and Development in the Philippines: The Ties That Bind (Ed Sevilla, L.A.). AIM Policy Center, Makati City.
Mason, Andrew (2007). “Demographic Dividends: The Past, the Present and the Future.” In Mason, A. and Yamaguchi, Mitoshi (eds.). Population Change, Labor Markets and Sustainable Growth: Towards a New Economic Paradigm. ELSEVIER.
National Statistical Coordination Board (2006), Website, www.nscb.gov.ph Philippine Daily Inquirer (2010). Interview with Health Secretary Esperanza Cabral by Jerry E. Esplanada , February 28, 2010 issue.
Sachs, J. D. (2008). Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet. Penguin Books.
The Economist (2009). “Falling fertility: How the population problem is solving itself.” October 31 to November 06, 2009 issue.
White, H. (1980). A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48:817-38.
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. OH: Thomson-Southwestern, 2003.