Mapa, Dennis S. and Albis, Manuel Leonard F. and Lucagbo, Michael (2012): The Link between Extreme Poverty and Young Dependents in the Philippines:Evidence from Household Surveys.
Download (209Kb) | Preview
The high level of extreme poverty or those experiencing hunger in the country is the most pressing issue that needs to be addressed by our policymakers. Official government statistics and data from self-rated hunger surveys show an increasing trend in hunger incidence among households. On the one hand, latest data from the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) show that the percentage of population experiencing hunger almost remained the same from 11.1 percent in 2003 to 10.8 percent in 2009. On the other hand, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) quarterly surveys on hunger incidence show an increasing trend in the percentage of families that experienced hunger, reaching 18.4 percent (about 3.8 million households) in the 2nd Quarter of 2012. This study looks at the determinants of extreme poverty among households using the data from the Family Income and Expenditures Survey (FIES) and the household surveys of SWS. Using a logit model on the pooled data, the results show that presence of a young dependent in the household increases the probability that the household will be extremely poor, controlling for other factors. Other variables that influence the probability of the household being extremely poor are the education of the household head and percentage of cash transfer from abroad. Moreover, regional characteristics such as varying food prices and underemployment rate (quality of jobs) explain a lot about the probability of the household being extremely poor. The study shows that we cannot ignore the evidence linking population growth and poverty. Development policies aimed at addressing poverty incidence in the country must include measures that will manage the country’s bourgeoning population.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||The Link between Extreme Poverty and Young Dependents in the Philippines:Evidence from Household Surveys|
|Keywords:||Extreme Poverty, Young Dependents, Logit Model, Population Management|
|Subjects:||J - Labor and Demographic Economics > J1 - Demographic Economics > J13 - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics > R2 - Household Analysis > R20 - General
C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
|Depositing User:||Dennis S. Mapa|
|Date Deposited:||29. Aug 2012 04:21|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 20:39|
Balisacan, Arsenio M., Sharon Piza, Dennis Mapa, Carlos Abad Santos, and Donna Odra (2010), “The Philippine Economy and Poverty During the Global Economic Crisis” The Philippine Review of Economics, Vol. XLVII, No.1, June 2010, pp.1-37.
Bartus, Tomas (2005), “Estimation of marginal eﬀects using margeﬀ” The Stata Journal, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 309-329.
Food Nutrition Research Institute (2010), website, www.fnri.dost.gov.ph.
Hodrick, R. and E. C. Prescott, 1997, "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29: 1-16.
Mangahas, M., 2009 “The Role of Civil Society in Poverty Monitoring: The Case of the Philippines.” A paper presented on The Impact of the Global Economic Situation on Poverty and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific, September 28-30, 2009, Hanoi, Vietnam.
Mapa, Dennis S., Arsenio M. Balisacan, Kristine Joy S. Briones (2006), “Robust Determinants of Income Growth in the Philippines.” Philippine Journal of Development (PJD), Volume XXXIII, Nos. 1-2, pp. 1-32.
Mapa, D.S., F. Han and K.C. Estrada (2011), “Food Inflation, Underemployment and Hunger Incidence: A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Analysis.” The Philippine Statistician, September 2011.
National Statistical Coordination Board (2007), “Frequently Asked Questions on Poverty Statistics http://www.nscb.gov.ph/poverty/FAQs/default.asp.
National Statistical Coordination Board (2011), “2009 Philippines Poverty Statistics.” http://www.nscb.gov.ph/poverty/default.asp
Orbeta, Aniceto C., Jr. (2006), “The more the poorer: why large family size causes poverty.” Policy Notes 2006-06, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Makati City.
Pernia, Ernesto M. et. al. (2012), “Population, poverty, politics and the Reproductive Health bill”, Position Paper , University of the Philippines School of Economics.
Reyes, C.M., A.B. Sobrevinas, J. Bancolita & J. de Jesus (2009), “Analysis of the Impact of Changes in the Price of Rice and Fuel on Poverty in the Philippines.” Discussion Paper Number 2009-07, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Makati City.
Reyes, C.M., A.B. Sobrevinas, & J. de Jesus (2010), “The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Poverty in the Philippines.” Discussion Paper Number 2010-04, Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Makati City.
Social Weather Stations (2012), “Second Quarter 2012 Social Weather Survey: Hunger subsides to 18.4% of families; Moderate Hunger at 13.7%, Severe Hunger at 4.8%” http://www.sws.org.ph/
Son, H.H. (2008), “Has Inflation Hurt the Poor? Regional Analysis in the Philippines.” ERD Working Paper Series No. 112, Asian Development Bank (ADB).
Thistlewaite and Campbell (1960), “Regression-Discontinuity Analysis: An alternative to the ex post facto experiment.” Journal of Educational Psychology 51: 309-317.