Shutes, Lindsay and Ganesh-Kumar, Anand and Meijerink, Gerdien W. (2012): Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India.
Download (551Kb) | Preview
The general perception is that high food prices in India have increased poverty and that trade reforms will further worsen poverty. We compare Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures for various scenarios of grain price swings with and without trade reform, using price and income effects for 32 representative households computed from a global economic model and a model of India's economy. The results suggest that a rise in the global rice price actually provides strong opportunities for poverty alleviation. Global trade reform reinforces this effect for all rural population groups. An increase in urban poverty partly offsets the overall poverty reduction. While India's trade measures effectively isolate sectors from swings in global markets, they also cause India to miss opportunities to benefit from buoyant global prices.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Fluctuating staple prices and household poverty in India|
|Keywords:||Poverty; food prices; trade; CGE analysis; India; household analysis|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C6 - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling > C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
O - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth > O2 - Development Planning and Policy > O24 - Trade Policy; Factor Movement Policy; Foreign Exchange Policy
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics > Q1 - Agriculture > Q18 - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
I - Health, Education, and Welfare > I3 - Welfare and Poverty > I32 - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
|Depositing User:||Gerdien W. Meijerink|
|Date Deposited:||31. Aug 2012 15:01|
|Last Modified:||16. Feb 2013 00:39|
Anderson, K., W. Martin and D. van der Mensbrugghe. 2006. Market and Welfare Implications of Doha Reform Scenarios, in K. Anderson and W. Martin [Eds. ] Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Annabi, N., Cissé, F., Cockburn, J. & Decaluwé, B. (2005). Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Poverty in Senegal: a Dynamic Microsimulation CGE Model Analysis. Working Paper, 512, CIRPEE.
Armington, P (1969) ‘A theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production’, IMF Staff Papers, 16, 159-178.
Bibi, S. & Chatti, R. (2006). Trade Liberalization and the Dynamics of Poverty in Tunisia: a Layered CGE Microsimulation Analysis. Working Paper, 7, PEP-MPIA.
Chitiga, M. & Mabugu, R. (2006). Does Trade Liberalisation Lead to Poverty Alleviation? A CGE Microsimulation Approach for Zimbabwe. Working Paper 18, PEP-MPIA.
Chopra. R. N. 1981. Evolution of Food Policy in India. New Delhi: Macmillan.
Cogneau, D. & Robilliard, A-S. (2000). Growth, Distribution and Poverty in Madagascar: Learning from a Microsimulation Model in a General Equilibrium Framework. TMD Discussion Paper, 61, IFPRI.
Cororaton, C. B, Cockburn, J. & Corong, E. (2005). Doha Scenarios, Trade Reforms and Poverty in the Philippines: A CGE Analysis. MTID Discussion Paper, 86, IFPRI.
Cororaton, C. B. & Cockburn, J. (2005). Trade Reform and Poverty in the Philippines: a Computable General Equilibrium Microsimulation Analysis. Working Paper, 0513, CIRPEE.
Dasgupta, Dipak, R. N. Dubey, and R. Sathish. 2011. Domestic Wheat Price Formation and Food Inflation in India. Working Paper Series. New Delhi, India: Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
Datt, G. & M. Ravallion, (2011). Has India's Economic Growth Become More Pro-Poor in the Wake of Economic Reforms? World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 157-189, February.
De Janvry, A., Sadoulet, E. & Fargeix, A. (1991). Politically Feasible and Equitable Adjustment: Some Alternatives for Ecuador. World Development, 19(11), pp. 1577-1594.
de Janvry, Alain, and Elisabeth Sadoulet. 2009. The Impact of Rising Food Prices on Hsehold Welfare in India. Working Paper Series. Berkeley, USA: Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, UC Berkeley.
Decaluwé, B., Patry, A., Savard, L. & Thorbecke, E. (1999). Poverty Analysis within a General Equilibrium Framework. Working paper, 9909, Department of Economics, Université Laval, Québec.
Foster, F., Greer, J. & Thorbecke, E. (1984). A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures. Econometrica, 52(3), pp. 761-766.
Ganesh-Kumar, A., M. Panda and M. E. Burfisher. 2006. Reforms in Indian Agro-processing and Agriculture Sectors in the context of Unilateral and Multilateral Trade Agreements. Working Paper No. WP-2006-011. Mumbai: Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research.
Government of India (2000). 1999/2000 National Sample Survey . National Sample Survey Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.
Gulati, A., J. Hanson, and G. Pursell. 1990. Effective incentives in India’s Agriculture. Policy Planning and Research Working Paper No. 332 (Trade Policy), World Bank.
Gulati, A. 1989. Food Subsidies: In search of cost-effectiveness. Economic and Political Weekly XXIV(28), July 15.
Harriss-White, B. (1996), A Political Economy of Agricultural Markets in South India: Masters of the Countryside, New Delhi, Sage.
Hertel, T. W., and R. Keeney. 2006. What is at Stake: The Relative Importance of Import Barriers, Export Subsidies and Domestic Support, in K. Anderson and W. Martin [Eds. ] Agricultural Trade Reform and the Doha Development Agenda, New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Lemon, J., Bolker, B., Oom, S., Klein, E., Rowlingson, B., Wickham, H,. Tyagi, A., Eterradossi, O., Grothendieck, G., Toews, M., Kane, J., Cheetham, M., Turner, R., Witthoft, C., Stander, J., Petzoldt, T., Duursma, R., Biancotto, E. and Levy, O. (2009). plotrix: Various plotting functions. R package version 2. 6-1. http://CRAN. R-project. org/package=plotrix
McDonald, S. 2006. STAGE: A Static Applied General Equilibrium Model: Technical Documentation. Mimeo. (Version 1. 1: November 2006. )
Panda M. and Quizon J. (1999): “Growth and Distribution Under Trade liberalization in India”, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai. Forthcoming in a volume edited by A. Guha, A. Lahiri and K. L. Krishna to be published by NIPFP/Ford Foundation, New Delhi.
Parikh, K. S., Ganesh-Kumar, A. and Darbha, G. (2002) Growth and Welfare Consequences of a Rise in Minimum Support Prices: An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for India. Report submitted to the Ministry of Finance, Government of India, New Delhi.
Parikh, K. S., Ganesh-Kumar, A. and Darbha, G. (2003) “Growth and Welfare Consequences of a Rise in Minimum Support Prices”, Economic and Political Weekly, 38(9), pp. 891-895, 2003.
Parikh, K. S., Narayana, N. S. S., Panda M. and Ganesh-Kumar A. (1995), “Strategies for Agricultural Liberalization: Consequences for Growth, Welfare and Distribution”, Report Submitted to the World Bank, PP-16, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai.
Parikh, K. S., Narayana, N. S. S., Panda M. and Ganesh-Kumar A. (1997), “Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Growth, Welfare and Large Country Effects”, Agricultural Economics, 17(1).
Polaski, S., Ganesh-Kumar, A., McDonald, S., Panda, M., & Robinson, S. (2008). ‘India’s Trade Policy Choices: Managing Diverse Challenges’. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
R Development Core Team (2009). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www. R-project. org.
Ripley, B. D. (2009). RODBC: ODBC Database Access. R package version 1. 2-5.
Scott, D. W. (1992) Multivariate Density Estimation. Theory, Practice and Visualization. New York: Wiley.
Subramanian, S. (1993). Agricultural Trade Liberalization and India. Paris: Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Suri, K. C. (2006), Political economy of agrarian distress. Economic and Political Weekly, 22 April, pp 1523–1529.
Taylor, L. and R. von Arnim. (2005). Modelling the Impact of Trade Liberalisation: A Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Models. OXFAM International Research Report. London, OXFAM