Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League

Lahvicka, Jiri (2012): Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League.

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Abstract

This paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.

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