Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny

Augustyniak, Hanna and Łaszek, Jacek and Olszewski, Krzysztof and Waszczuk, Joanna (2012): Cykle na rynku nieruchomości mieszkaniowych i komercyjnych, ryzyko dla inwestora oraz potrzeba adekwatnej i ostrożnej wyceny. Forthcoming in: Biuletyn wydany z okazji Sympozjum Wyceny Nieruchomości i Przedsiębiorstw, 20-22 września 2012 r. (www.swnip.pl) (September 2012)

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Abstract

This article explains why the housing and commercial real estate market are in a permanent disequilibrium. The real estate market converges towards the equilibrium, but it changes due to credit constraints, expectations and the long investment process. The cycles on this market are much more volatile than those of the whole economy. Moreover, the market is very local. Often, one can observe the accumulation of different factors, which lead to herding and speculations and finally result in a crisis. Because the market is strongly financed by banks, problems on the market affect the whole financial system. Thus, an appropriate and prudent valuation of the property is needed, which helps to smooth the demand and also reduces the risk for the investor and the bank.

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