Halicioglu, Ferda (2012): Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime in Turkey.
Download (232Kb) | Preview
This study is concerned with understanding of the factors of aggregate, nonviolent and violent crime categories in Turkey for the period 1965-2009. The determinants of all crime categories are related to selected socio-economic factors. Bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the existence of long-run relationship amongst the variables. Cointegration analysis yields the major contributors of crime are income and unemployment. The direction of causalities between the variables are established using within and out of sample causality tests. The findings from this study present the dynamics of aggregate, violent and non-violent crimes to design and implement any relevant policy measures to combat them.
|Item Type:||MPRA Paper|
|Original Title:||Temporal Causality and the Dynamics of Crime in Turkey|
|Keywords:||crime, cointegration, causality, time series, Turkey|
|Subjects:||C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods > C2 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables > C22 - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
K - Law and Economics > K4 - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior > K42 - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
A - General Economics and Teaching > A1 - General Economics > A14 - Sociology of Economics
|Depositing User:||Ferda HALICIOGLU|
|Date Deposited:||07. Oct 2012 15:15|
|Last Modified:||15. Feb 2013 20:55|
Becker, G.S. (1968) Crime and punishment: an economic approach, Journal of Political Economy, 76, 169-217.
Beki, C., Zeelenberg, K. and Kees, van M. (1999) An analysis of the crime rate in the Netherlands 1950-1993, British Journal of Criminology, 39, 401-415.
Bodman, P.M. and Maulty, C. (1997) Crime, punishment and deterence in Australia: a further empirical investigation, International Journal of Social Economics, 24, 884-901.
Britt, C. L. (1994) Crime and unemployment among youths in the United States, 1958-1990, American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 53, 99-109
Brown , K.V. (2001) The determinants of crime in South Africa, South African Journal of Economics, 69, 269-298.
Brown, R.L., Durbin, J., Evans, J.M. (1975) Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 37, 149-163.
Cantor, D. and Land, K.C. (1985) Unemployment and crime rates in the Post- Wordl War II United States: a theoretical and empirical analysis, American Sociological Review, 50, 317-332.
Chiricos, T.G. (1987) Rates of crime and unemployment: an analysis of aggregate research evidence, Social Problems, 34, 187-212.
Corman, H. Joyce, T., and Lovitch, N. (1987) Crime, deterence and the business cyle in New York, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69, 695-700.
Comertler, N. and Kar, M. (2007) Economic and social determinants of the crime rate in Turkey: cross-section analysis, The Review of Faculty of Political Sciences of Ankara University, 62, 1-7.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981) Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of American Statistician Association, 40, 12-26.
Detotto, C., and Pulina, M. (2009) Does more crime mean fewer jobs? An ARDL model, Working Papers, No.2009/5, Crenos, Cagliari, Italy.
Edmark, K. (2005) Unemployment and crime: is there a connection?, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 107, 353-373.
Ehrlich, I. (1996) Crime, punishment, and the market for offenses, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10, 43-67.
Ehrlich, I. (1973) Participation in illegitimate activities: a theoretical and empirical investigation, Journal of Political Economy, 38, 521-565.
Engle, R. F. and Granger, C. W. J. (1987) Cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-276.
Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T. and Stock, J. (1996) Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
Funk, P., and Kugler, P. (2003) Identifying efficient crime-combating policies by VAR models; the example of Switzerland, Contemporay Economics Policy, 21, 525-538.
Gartner, R. (1990) The victims of homicide: a temporal and cross-national comparisons, American Sociological Review, 55, 92-106.
Hale, C. (1998) Crime and the business cycle in post-Britain revisited, British Journal of Criminology, 38, 681-698.
Harrendorf, S., Heiskanen, M., and Malby, S. (2010) International Statistics on Crime and Justice, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Vienna.
Johansen, S., and Juselius, K. (1990) Maksimum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to money demand, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52,169-210.
Kustepeli, Y., and Onel, G. (2006) Different categories of crimes and their socio-economic determinants in Turkey: evidence from VECM, Conference Paper, presented at Turkish Economic Association on International Conference on Economics, September 11-13, 2006, Ankara.
Lee, D.Y., and Holoviak, S.J. (2006) Unemployment and crime : an empirical investigation, Applied Economics Letters, 13, 805-810.
Luiz, J.M. (2000) Temporal association, the dynamics of crime, and their economic determinants: a time series econometric model of South Africa, Social Indicators Research, 53, 33-61.
Levitt, S. (1999) The changing relationship between income and crime victimization, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Policy Review, 5, 87-98.
Machin, S., and Meghir, C. (2004) Crime and economic incentives, The Journal of Human Resources, 34, 958-970.
Masih, A.M.M., and Masih, R. (1996) Temporal causality and the dynamics of different categories of crime and their socioeconomic determinants: evidence from Australia, Applied Economics, 28, 1093-1104.
Meera, A.K, and Jayakumar, M.D. (1995) Determinants of crime in a developing country: a regression model, Applied Economics, 27, 455-460. Melick, M. D. (2003) The relationship between unemployment and crime, The Park Place Economist, 11, 29-36.
Narayan, P., and Smyth, R. (2004) Crime rates, male youth unemployment and real income in Australia: evidence from Granger causality tests, Applied Economics, 36, 2079-2095.
Narayan, P.K. (2005) The savings and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests, Applied Economics, 37, 1979-1990.
Nikolas, D., Alexandros, G. (2009) The effect of socio-economic determinants on crime rates: an empirical research in the case of Greece with cointegration analysis, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 2, 51-64.
Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001) Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, The Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326.
Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988) Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
Sims, C. A. (1980) Macroeconomics and reality, Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
Saridakis, G. (2004) Violent crime in the United States of America: a time-series analysis between 1960-2000, European Journal of Law and Economics, 18, 203-214.
Scorcu, A., and Cellini, R. (1998) Economic activity and crime in the long-run: an empirical investigation on aggregate data from Italy, 1951-1994, International Review of Law and Economics, 18, 279-292.
Shoesmith, G.L. (2010) Four factors that explain both the rise and fall of US crime, 1970-2003, Applied Economics, 42, 2957-2973.
Soares, R. (2004) Development, crime and punishment: accounting for the international differences in crime rates, Journal of Development Economics, 73, 155-184.
Reilly, B., and Witt, R. (1992) Crime and unemployment in Scotland: an econometric analysis using regional data, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 39, 213-228.