Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006)

Khattak, Naeem Ur Rehman Khattak and Hussain, Anwar Hussain (2010): Determinants of Exports in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis (1970-2006). Published in: Journal of Huminities and Social Sciences , Vol. 18, No. 1 (2010): pp. 102-108.

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Abstract

The present study has been conducted in the year 2008 to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan during 1970-2006 using econometric techniques. Time series data ranging from 1970 to 2006 on total exports, primary commodities exports, semi-manufactures and exports of manufactured goods has been taken from Economic Survey of Pakistan (Statistical Supplement, 2006-07). Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test has been used for checking the stationarity of the data. Furthermore, the Johenson Co-integration test (likelihood ratio statistic) has been used to detect the long-term relationship among the series. The method of ordinary least square has been used to assess the determinants of exports in Pakistan. The results indicate that 1% increase in the exports of primary commodities brings 0.97% increase in total exports in Pakistan. Similarly, 1% increase in the exports of semi-manufactures leads to increase total exports by 0.99%. On similar pattern, 1% increase in the exports of manufactured goods leads to increase total exports by 1%. The coefficients of all the explanatory variables are statistically significant at both 5% and 1% level of significance. It is recommended to increase the exports of primary goods, semi-manufactures and manufactured goods so as make balance of trade favorable.

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